区域耦合预报系统的中国近海海面风场预报检验评估-海洋预报

区域耦合预报系统的中国近海海面风场预报检验评估

单位：1. 自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 河海大学海洋学院, 江苏南京 210024

分类号：P732.4

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第六期（1-12）

摘要：

利用中国近海浮标观测数据检验评估了国家海洋环境预报中心开发的西北太平洋区域耦合数值预报系统的海面风场预报结果。结果表明：耦合系统对中国近海海域10 m风场的预报性能较好，预报风速与浮标观测风速具有较高的一致性，24 h风速预报绝对误差小于1.5 m/s，系统的预报性能随着预报时效的延长而降低；系统的预报性能在不同海域存在差异，东海区域的预报风速与观测风速最为接近，南海区域两者的相关性最好，但是随着预报时效延长，预报偏差的离散程度变大，预报性能降低；24 h风场的预报性能在不同风级下存在差异，4～6级风速区间的预报性能较好，风速较大时风向的预报性能较好；耦合系统在不同月份的预报性能也存在差异，其中冬季相对较好，夏季较差。

Utilizing observational data from the buoys in China's offshore areas, this work evaluates the forecast results of sea surface wind field from the Northwest Pacific regional coupled numerical prediction system developed by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center. The result shows that the 10 m wind field forecasts exhibit high performance across the entire China offshore region. There is a good consistency between the predicted and observed wind speed, with an absolute error in 24-hours forecasts less than 1.5 m/s. The forecast performance of the system decreases along with the prolong of the forecast lead time. The forecast performance of the system varies in different offshore areas. The East China Sea has the closest predicted wind speed and observed wind speed to the observations, whereas the South China Sea has the best fit between the predicted and observed wind speeds. However, as the forecast lead time extends, the dispersion of the forecasting deviation becomes larger, leading to a reduction in forecast skill. The 24-hour wind field forecast performance varies under different wind speeds. The system performance is higher under wind speed range of 4~6 m/s, and the prediction of wind direction is better under conditions of higher wind speeds. The forecast performance of the coupled system differs in different forecast months, with better performance in winter and relatively poor performance in summer.

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