基于探空数据的南海悬空波导预测模型研究-海洋预报

基于探空数据的南海悬空波导预测模型研究

单位：江苏海洋大学海洋技术与测绘学院, 江苏连云港 222005

分类号：P732.6

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第六期（44-52）

摘要：

通过分析南海全球定位系统探空数据，揭示南海悬空波导的形成规律及其与海洋大气边界层高度的显著相关性。结果表明：南海悬空波导的发生概率约为 60%，波导平均陷获层高度为786 m，平均海洋大气边界层顶高度为 894 m，两者相关系数为 0.64，存在较强的相关性；悬空波导强度和厚度与海洋大气边界层高度的关系不明显。98%的悬空波导由湿度随高度锐减引起，其中约50%伴随着逆温现象。基于这些发现，建立了一个基于近海面温度和陷获层底温差估算悬空波导顶高的经验模型，在南海的应用表现优于美国卫星海上悬空波导高度估算技术。

Analysis on the formation mechanism of elevated ducts and their significant correlation with the height of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) are carried out based on the Global Position System (GPS) sounding data from the South China Sea (SCS). The results show that the occurrence probability of elevated ducts in the South China Sea is approximately 60%, with an average trapping layer height of 786 m and MABL height of 894 m. The correlation coefficient between them is 0.64, demonstrating a strong correlation. The strength and thickness of elevated ducts exhibit no significant relationship with the MABL height. Approximately 98% of elevated ducts are caused by sharp decreases in humidity with altitude, and about 50% of them are accompanied by temperature inversions. Based on these findings, an empirical model is developed to estimate the top height of elevated ducts using the temperature difference between near-surface and trapping layer bottom temperatures. The model demonstrates superior performance in the South China Sea compared to the Satellite Marine-layer/ Elevated Duct Height technique proposed by the United States Navy.

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