基于数值模拟的2024年10月渤海和黄海沿岸海水倒灌事件成因分析-海洋预报

基于数值模拟的2024年10月渤海和黄海沿岸海水倒灌事件成因分析

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第一期（1-10）

摘要：

2024年10月18—21日，渤海和黄海沿岸发生了罕见的强温带风暴潮过程，导致辽宁、河北和天津部分低洼地区出现较严重的海水倒灌，风暴增水分两个阶段，第一阶段由强冷空气引起，第二阶段由边缘波引起。为探究其成因，采用美国国家环境预报中心再分析风场开展风暴潮数值模拟，渤海和黄海海域浮标位置处再分析风速的均方根误差为2.1 m/s，数值模拟的沿岸潮位站在第一阶段和第二阶段的最大增水平均相对误差分别为13.7%和8.2%，证明数值模拟可以准确还原风暴潮运动和传播，即边缘波自朝鲜半岛西部沿岸向我国黄海北部沿岸、渤海沿岸和黄海南部沿岸逆时针传播。采用数值模拟结果分析黄海南部断面和渤海海峡断面流量发现，两个断面第二阶段的海水流入量比第一阶段的流出量分别高出66%和75%，这也是第二阶段由边缘波引起的增水大、范围广且时间长的原因。此外，边缘波和风对第二阶段风暴潮的贡献占比分别为94%和6%，边缘波起绝对主导作用。

A rare strong extratropical storm surge event occurred along the coasts of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea from October 18 to 21, 2024, resulting in seawater backward in some low-lying areas of Liaoning Province, Hebei Province, and Tianjin City. The storm surge was divided into two stages: the first stage was caused by strong cold air, and the second stage was caused by edge waves. To explore its causes, this study conducted a numerical simulation of the storm surge using NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction）reanalysis wind fields. The root mean squared error of the reanalysis wind speed at the buoy locations in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea was 2.1 m/s. The average relative errors of the simulated maximum storm surge at coastal tidal gauges in the first and second stages are 13.7% and 8.2% respectively, proving that the numerical simulation can accurately reproduce the movement and propagation of the storm surge, that is, the edge waves propagate counterclockwise from the western coast of the Korean Peninsula to the northern coast of the Yellow Sea, the coast of the Bohai Sea, and the southern coast of the Yellow Sea. Using the numerical simulation results to analyze the flow rates in the southern Yellow Sea section and the Bohai Strait section, it was found that the inflow of seawater in the second stage was 66% and 75% higher than the outflow in the first stage, which explains the reason why the storm surge caused by edge waves in the second stage is large, wide-ranging and long-lasting. In addition, the contributions of edge waves and winds to the storm surge in the second stage were 94% and 6%, respectively, with edge waves playing an absolutely dominant role.

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