秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积异常对渤海、黄海冰情的影响-海洋预报

秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积异常对渤海、黄海冰情的影响

单位：1. 中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司, 北京 102209;
2. 国家能源海上风电工程与运行技术研发中心, 北京 102209;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
4. 华能辽宁清洁能源有限责任公司, 辽宁沈阳 110015;
5. 辽宁省自然资源事务服务中心, 辽宁沈阳 1

关键词：海冰渤海黄海巴伦支海-喀拉海冰情预测

分类号：P73l.32

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第一期（32-37）

摘要：

利用美国国家冰雪数据中心海冰覆盖面积月平均数据、美国气象环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心月平均再分析资料和渤海、黄海冰情等级数据，研究了秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积异常对渤海、黄海冰情的影响。结果表明：去趋势的秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积与渤海、黄海冰情等级呈显著的负相关，相关系数为-0.54；秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积异常偏少，有利于高纬度冷空气南下，冷空气活动频繁造成冬季我国北方地区气温偏低，导致渤海、黄海冰情偏重，反之亦然；若前期秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积呈负异常，则冬季渤海、黄海发生严重冰情的概率较大，近42年冬季渤海、黄海冰情等级在3级以上的年份，前期秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积均为负异常。因此，前期秋季巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰面积可以作为我国冬季渤海、黄海冰情的预测因子。

The effect of autumn sea ice area anomaly in the Barents-Kara Seas on ice condition of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea was analyzed based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center monthly sea ice area data, the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data, and the ice grade data in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The results show that the detrended autumn sea ice area anomaly in the Barents-Kara Seas is negatively correlated to the ice grade in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea with a correlation of -0.54. During the low autumn sea ice year in the Barents-Kara Seas, the frequency of cold air activity increases and winter temperature in north China is below normal, leading to heavier ice condition in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and vice versa. When autumn sea ice area is negative anomaly in the BarentsKara Seas, there is a high probability of heavier ice condition in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. Autumn sea ice area is negative anomaly in the Barents-Kara Seas when ice grade is above Grade 3 in the past 42 years. Therefore, the autumn sea ice area in the Barents-Kara Seas is a good predictor of ice condition in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea.

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