中国近海2023年灾害性海浪分析及2024年预测-海洋预报

中国近海2023年灾害性海浪分析及2024年预测

作者：吕睿¹ 2 徐瑞³ 4 王娟娟³ 4 侯放³ 4 李本霞³ 4 5 孟凡昌³ 4 朱亚波⁶ 魏世哲⁶ 蒋学站⁶

单位：1. 中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司, 北京 102209;
2. 国家能源海上风电工程与运行技术研发中心, 北京 102209;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
4. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
5. 河海大学海洋学

关键词：海浪灾害灾害性海浪海浪灾情检验海浪预测

分类号：P731.22

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第二期（39-45）

摘要：

对2023年中国近海灾害性海浪（有效波高≥4 m）过程及灾情进行总结和分析，并对2023年的预测结果进行检验。根据往年的资料统计结果以及2024年热带气旋和副热带高压的预测分析，结合历史气候态相似年的分析，预测得到2024年中国近海的灾害性海浪过程。预测结果认为：2024年中国近海将发生灾害性海浪过程33～37次，较2023年增多，但较常年平均次数略偏少；灾害性台风浪过程为11～13次，主要影响我国东海、台湾海峡和南海区域；灾害性气旋浪和冷空气浪过程22～24次，与常年平均次数持平。

China's offshore areas experienced several hazardous wave events with significant wave heights (H_s) larger than 4 meters in 2023, resulting in varying degrees of damage. In this study, the forecasts of hazardous wave events for 2023 are verified against the observations. Besides, using statistical data of hazardous wave events from 1979 to 2022, and the prediction data for the subtropical high and tropical cyclones in 2024, a prediction of hazardous wave events for 2024 are made based on linear regression and similar year analysis. The results show that, there will be 33~37 hazardous wave events in China's offshore areas in 2024, which is more than that in 2023 but slightly less than the climatic average. Among these hazardous wave events, 11~13 events will be caused by typhoons affecting the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea. 22~24 events will be caused by cold air and cyclones, which is close to the climatic average.

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