基于非对称台风风场的风暴潮模拟研究-海洋预报

基于非对称台风风场的风暴潮模拟研究

单位：1. 浙江省水文管理中心, 浙江杭州 310027;
2. 浙江省水利河口研究院(浙江省海洋规划设计研究院), 浙江杭州 310020;
3. 河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏南京 210098

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第四期（1-10）

摘要：

在对2001—2021年西北太平洋热带气旋最大风速半径特征分析的基础上，基于最优风速半径Lin&Fang公式，提出了与方位角相关的四象限非对称最大风速半径计算公式。选取影响浙江沿海的4场历史台风（台风“菲特”、“马勒卡”、“摩羯”、“利奇马”）进行研究，通过与原始公式计算结果进行对比发现，四象限非对称最大风速半径计算公式可以更加准确地模拟台风风速的变化过程，基于该公式得到的风暴潮模拟结果更准确地反映了台风期间浙江沿海地区的最大风暴增水过程。

Based on the analysis of maximum wind speed radius of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific from 2001 to 2021, a four-quadrant asymmetric maximum wind speed radius calculation formula relying on azimuth angle is proposed based on the optimal wind speed radius formula of Lin&Fang. Four historical typhoons（ "Fitow", "Malakas", "Yagi", "Lekima"） affecting the Zhejiang coast are selected to validate the proposed formula in comparison with the original Lin&Fang formula. The results show that the proposed formula simulates the typhoon wind speed change more accurately. The storm surge calculation using the proposed formula products more accurate maximum storm surge along the Zhejiang coast.

参考文献：

[1] WALSH K J E, CAMARGO S J, KNUTSON T R, et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change[J]. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2019, 8(4):240-250.
[2] CUI W, CARACOGLIA L. Exploring hurricane wind speed along US Atlantic coast in warming climate and effects on predictions of structural damage and intervention costs[J]. Engineering Structures, 2016, 122:209-225.
[3] PAN Y, CHEN Y P, LI J X, et al. Improvement of wind field hindcasts for tropical cyclones[J]. Water Science and Engineering,2016, 9(1):58-66.
[4] YAN D C, ZHANG T Y. Research progress on tropical cyclone parametric wind field models and their application[J]. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 2022, 51:102207.
[5] JELESNIANSKI C P. Numerical computations of storm surges without bottom stress[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1966, 94(6):379-394.
[6] HOLLAND G J. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1980, 108(8):1212-1218.
[7] HU B H, YANG X Q, TAN Y K, et al. A new method for calculating the wind speed distribution of a moving tropical cyclone[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 27(1):69-79.
[8] 吴彦,赵红军,叶荣辉,等.非对称风场对台风浪模拟效果的比较研究[J]. 海洋预报, 2020, 37(1):55-61.WU Y, ZHAO H J, YE R H, et al. A comparative study of the effects of asymmetric wind field on typhoon wave simulation[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2020, 37(1):55-61.
[9] 傅赐福,于福江,刘秋兴,等.四象限非对称风场对风暴潮的改进研究[J]. 海洋通报, 2013, 32(6):626-632.FU C F, YU F J, LIU Q X, et al. An improved study on the storm surge with four-quadrant asymmetric wind model[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2013, 32(6):626-632.
[10] 陈孔沫.一种计算台风风场的方法[J]. 热带海洋, 1994, 13(2):41-48.CHEN K M. A computation method for typhoon wind field[J]. Tropic Oceanology, 1994, 13(2):41-48.
[11] ZHONG X, WEI K, SHANG D M. An improved azimuthdependent Holland model for typhoons along the Zhejiang coast prior to landfall based on WRF–ARW simulations[J]. Natural Hazards, 2023, 117(3):2325-2346.
[12] 房伟,陈国平,赵红军,等.最大风速半径对台风浪计算效果的比较研究[J]. 水道港口, 2017, 38(6):574-580.FANG W, CHEN G P, ZHAO H J, et al. The influence of radius of maximum wind on typhoon waves[J]. Journal of Waterway and Harbor, 2017, 38(6):574-580.
[13] WU Y, DOU S T, FAN Y S, et al. Research on the influential characteristics of asymmetric wind fields on typhoon waves[J]. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023, 10:1113494.
[14] ZHAO S K, LIU Z W, WEI X R, et al. Intercomparison of empirical formulations of maximum wind radius in parametric tropical storm modeling over Zhoushan Archipelago[J]. Sustainability, 2021, 13(21):11673.
[15] 罗佳敏,姜云鹏,庞亮,等.基于参数化风场的浙江沿海风暴潮数值模拟[J]. 海洋学报, 2022, 44(10):20-34.LUO J M, JIANG Y P, PANG L, et al. Numerical simulation of storm surge in the coast of Zhejiang based on para-metric wind field model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2022, 44(10):20-34.
[16] 刘士诚,陈永平,谭亚,等.珠江河网1822号台风“山竹”期间风暴增水模拟及特性分析[J]. 海洋预报, 2021, 38(2):12-20.LIU S C, CHEN Y P, TAN Y, et al. Storm surge simulation and characteristic analysis during typhoon“Mangkhut” 2018 in the Pearl River Estuary[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2021, 38(2):12-20.
[17] 罗锋,汪忆,杨洁,等.相似路径台风风暴潮过程对比[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 51(6):130-140.LUO F, WANG Y, YANG J, et al. Comparative study on storm surge processes caused by typhoons with similar tracks[J]. Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences), 2023, 51(6):130-140.
[18] 张露,傅赐福,董剑希,等.台风“妮妲”风暴潮与近岸浪的数值模拟与预报[J]. 海洋预报, 2018, 35(2):27-35.ZHANG L, FU C F, DONG J X, et al. Numerical simulation and forecasting on storm surge and offshore wave of typhoon“Nida”[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2018, 35(2):27-35.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】