一次冬季浙北入海雷暴天气诊断模拟分析-海洋预报

一次冬季浙北入海雷暴天气诊断模拟分析

单位：1. 江苏省气象台, 江苏南京 210019;
2 中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室, 江苏南京 210019;
3. 南京信息工程大学, 江苏南京 210044;
4. 北京华云通合科技发展有限公司, 北京 100081

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第四期（85-93）

摘要：

利用多普勒天气雷达资料、地面观测和区域自动站资料、探空资料、ERA5逐小时再分析资料（水平分辨率0.25°×0.25°）以及WRF-ARW数值模式，对2019年2月26日发生在浙北沿海的一次冬季雷暴过程进行了分析。结果表明：此次雷暴过程受地面的冷高压和中低层的暖湿气流共同影响，近地面层有明显的冷垫，层结较为稳定，以下沉运动为主；而中低层存在逆温层结，有较好的动力和水汽条件，以上升运动为主；此次雷暴过程是从边界层顶发展维持的，是一次高架雷暴；中低层的逆温层为此次高架雷暴的发生和发展提供了重要的温度层结条件。模式能够较好地重现本次冬季高架雷暴的发生—发展—入海减弱—消亡的过程。敏感试验表明：高架雷暴入海后，浙东海面的地形有利于雷暴回波的维持。更高的海面温度使得低层大气更加不稳定，破坏了逆温层结，使得高架雷暴入海后难以维持，这可能是此次冬季高架雷暴入海减弱的原因之一。

Based on Doppler weather radar data, surface observations, ERA5 hourly reanalysis data（with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°×0.25°）, and the WRF-ARW numerical model, an analysis was conducted on a winter thunderstorm event along the northern coast of Zhejiang that occurred on February 26, 2019. The results showed that this thunderstorm process was influenced by the surface cold high pressure and warm moist airflow at the middle and lower levels. There was a significant cold pool near the surface, with relatively stable stratification and dominant subsidence. In contrast, the middle and lower levels exhibited an inversion layer with favorable dynamic and moisture conditions, characterized by dominant upward motion. This thunderstorm developed and maintained from the top of the boundary layer, making it an elevated thunderstorm. The inversion layer in the middle and lower levels provided crucial thermal stratification condition for the development of this elevated thunderstorm. The WRF model was able to accurately reproduce the occurrence, development, weakening, and dissipation of this winter elevated thunderstorm. Sensitivity experiments showed that after the elevated thunderstorm moved over the sea, the terrain of the eastern Zhejiang sea area was conducive to the maintenance of thunderstorm. Higher sea surface temperature made the lower atmosphere more unstable disrupting the inversion layer and the elevated thunderstorm. This could be one of the reasons for the weakening of this winter elevated thunderstorm after it moved over the sea.

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