基于支持向量机的长江口气象潮预报方法研究-海洋预报

基于支持向量机的长江口气象潮预报方法研究

单位：上海海事测绘中心, 上海 200090

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第六期（1-5）

摘要：

以长江口实测潮位、气象逐时资料为基础，建立了基于支持向量机的气象潮预报模型，研究探讨了长江口水域气象潮预报的可行性，认为潮流应作为支持向量机的输入因子之一；通过将支持向量机气象潮预报值与长江口部分潮位站天文潮预报值叠加，修正天文潮预报结果。经与实测资料对比发现，该方法可明显提高潮位预报精度。

Based on the measured tide level and hourly meteorological data in the Yangtze River Estuary, a Support Vector Machine model for meteorological tide prediction is established, and the feasibility of meteorological tide prediction in the Yangtze River estuary is discussed. The results suggest that the tidal current could be one of the input factors of Support Vector Machine. Superposing the predicted meteorological tide on the predicted astronomical tide at some tide stations corrects the predicted astronomical tide in the Yangtze River Estuary, which improves the precision of the tide level forecasts significantly.

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