基于ERA5再分析数据的钦州湾40年风浪关系分析-海洋预报

基于ERA5再分析数据的钦州湾40年风浪关系分析

单位：1. 重庆交通大学河海学院, 重庆 400074;
2. 平陆运河集团有限公司, 广西南宁 530200;
3. 中交水运规划设计院有限公司, 北京 100007

分类号：P732.6

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第六期（6-16）

摘要：

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5数据集，系统性研究了钦州湾1983—2022年风场、海浪场的分级概率分布以及特征要素的年际、月际特征值分布和重现期特征；进一步拟合风浪关系，明晰有效波高与波周期的联合概率分布。结果表明：钦州湾常风向为NNE向、常浪向为SSW向；风速与有效波高的季节特征明显，春夏两季多为向岸风，秋冬两季多为离岸风，根据不同风向可建立不同的风浪关系；波高与周期的联合分布呈类斜三角形特征，波高为0～1.0 m、波周期为2.0～5.0 s的波浪发生次数最多。

Based on the ERA5 data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study systematically examines the graded probability distribution of wind and wave fields in Qinzhou Bay from 1983 to 2022, as well as the interannual, monthly, and return period characteristics of key parameters. Further-more, the wind-wave relationship is fitted to clarify the joint probability distribution of significant wave height and wave period. The results show that the prevailing wind direction in Qinzhou Bay is NNE, while the dominant wave direction is SSW. Seasonal variations in wind speed and significant wave height are evident: onshore winds prevail in spring and summer, whereas offshore winds dominate in autumn and winter. Wind-wave relationships are established based on different wind directions. The joint distribution of wave height and period resembles an oblique triangle, with waves of 0～1.0 m in height and 2.0～5.0 s in period occurring most frequently.

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