基于风、浪、流参数的畸形波发生概率预测方法研究-海洋预报

基于风、浪、流参数的畸形波发生概率预测方法研究

单位：1. 自然资源部第二海洋研究所卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室, 浙江杭州 310012;
2. 上海交通大学海洋学院, 上海 200240

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第六期（24-33）

摘要：

基于58个波浪浮标的观测数据及风场、流场的再分析资料，利用滑动窗口法分析了多个海况参数与畸形波发生概率（RWO）的关系。结果表明：有效波高与RWO之间存在显著的负相关关系；随着风速增加，RWO先减小后增大，随着流速增加，RWO先增大后减小，但均在特定阈值处转折；不同风浪夹角下RWO变化较小，浪流夹角为锐角时RWO略大；随着相对水深增加，RWO存在一定下降趋势。从海况参数与RWO的相关性出发，选择有效波高作为主要建模参数。在此基础上，由于不同风速对畸形波的调制作用不同，探讨了不同风速下畸形波发生概率随有效波高的变化情况，并确定了最佳风速阈值。根据不同风速条件下有效波高与RWO的关系，将低风速与中等风速小波高（有效波高≤5 m）数据合并建模，中等风速大波高（有效波高>5 m）单独建模，并在测试集上进行验证。结果表明：在低风速及中等风速小波高条件下，真实RWO与模型预测RWO的决定系数和均方根误差分别为0.97和0.001 9；中等风速大波高条件下分别为0.81和0.003 5。

Based on observational data of 58 wave buoys and reanalysis data of wind and ocean current, the relationship between multiple sea state parameters and rogue wave occurrence（RWO） is analyzed based on sliding window method. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between effective wave height and the RWO. The RWO first decreases and then increases along with the increase of wind speed, while first increases and then decreases along with the increase of current speed. The RWO changes small under different wind-wave angles, but is relatively large under acute current-wave angle. The RWO has a downward trend when the relative water depth increases. Significant wave height is selected as the main parameter to build model considering the correlation between sea state parameters and the RWO. Further, the change of the RWO with significant wave height under different wind speeds is discussed and the optimal wind speed threshold is determined. As a result, the data of low-moderate wind speed with small wave height（significant wave height ≤5 m） are categorized to build a model, and the data of medium wind speed with large wave height（significant wave height ＞5 m） are separately categorized to build a model. Validation shows that the coefficient of determination and root mean square error between the real RWO and the predicted RWO are 0.97 and 0.001 9 under low-moderate wind speed with small wave height, and the values are 0.81 and 0.0035 under medium wind speed with large wave height.

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