北极海冰面积变化及东北航道适航性研究-海洋预报

北极海冰面积变化及东北航道适航性研究

单位：1. 重庆交通大学水利水运工程教育部重点实验室, 重庆 400074;
2. 重庆交通大学河海学院, 重庆 400074;
3. 重庆交通大学国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心, 重庆 400074

分类号：P731.32;P727

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第六期（55-64）

摘要：

为明晰北极冰情变化及适航性，研究基于AMSR-E/AMSR2(OUC2)和FY-3D/MWRI(OUC3)两种逐日海冰密集度数据，采用目视解译与权重分析方法，分析2003—2023年北极海冰面积变化及东北航道适航性。结果表明：两种数据在海冰季节变化和通航关键区域方面表现一致，但OUC2数据因空间分辨率较高，识别出的海冰面积范围更广，解译出的可通航天数更高；北极海冰面积变化具有明显的季节循环性，4—9月面积减少约70%,10月—次年3月面积增长约95%，太阳辐射及其引起的气温、海温变化是主要驱动因素；影响东北航道通航的关键区域为维利基茨基海峡、北地群岛、新西伯利亚群岛和东西伯利亚海；2020年之前，两个数据集显示的东北航道可通航天数呈波动上升趋势，但2021—2023年可通航天数均显著下降，其中OUC2数据从105天降至37天，OUC3数据从104天降至29天，这主要由于大气环流状态发生变化，导致海冰输运到拉普捷夫海和东西伯利亚海区域堆积并堵塞航道，减少了可通航天数。

To study the changes in sea ice conditions and navigability of the Arctic Northeast Passage, based on the daily Arctic sea ice concentration from the AMSR-E/AMSR2（OUC2） and FY-3D/MWRI（OUC3） data, we investigate sea ice area variability and the navigability of the Northeast Passage（NEP） from 2003 to 2023 using the eye interpretation and weighting analysis methods. The results show that: Both datasets show consistency in seasonal sea ice variations and key navigable regions, and the OUC2 data with a higher spatial resolution presents a broader sea ice area and yields higher navigable days compared to the OUC3 data. The Arctic sea ice area changes follow a clear seasonal cycle, decreasing by approximately 70% from April to September and increasing by about 95% from October to next March, primarily driven by solar radiation and the associated air temperature and sea surface temperature changes. The key regions affecting the navigability of the NEP are Vilkitsky Strait,Severnaya Zemlya Islands, New Siberian Islands, and the East Siberian Sea. The navigable days of the NEP in both datasets have a fluctuating upward trend before 2020, but significantly decrease between 2021 and 2023（OUC2: from 105 days to 37 days; OUC3: from 104 days to 29 days）, primarily due to changes in atmospheric circulation leading to the accumulation of sea ice in the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea, which blocks the passage and reduces navigable days.

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