不同边界层参数化方案对台风“杜苏芮”(202305)路径和强度模拟的影响-海洋预报

不同边界层参数化方案对台风“杜苏芮”(202305)路径和强度模拟的影响

单位：1. 青岛海洋气象研究院, 中国气象科学研究院, 山东青岛 266404;
2. 青岛海洋气象研究中心, 青岛市气象局, 山东青岛 266404;
3. 天津市滨海新区气象局, 天津 300457;
4 灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室, 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081

关键词：边界层参数化方案数值模拟台风路径和强度潜热通量台风眼尺寸

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第六期（65-82）

摘要：

利用中尺度数值预报模式WRFV3.9，采用美国国家环境预报中心分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的FNL再分析数据作为初始场和边界条件，选取6种边界层参数化方案（MYJ、MYNN、YSU、Acm2、BouLac和SH），对2023年5号超强台风“杜苏芮”进行数值模拟，对比分析不同方案对台风路径和强度模拟的影响。结果表明，不同边界层方案对台风路径模拟影响较小，对台风强度模拟影响显著。总体而言，SH方案模拟的路径和YSU方案模拟的强度与实况更接近。从台风强度模拟来看，MYNN方案模拟的切向风和暖心结构最强，且台风眼尺寸最小，对应模拟的台风强度最强，SH方案次之，MYJ、YSU、Acm2和BouLac方案模拟的台风强度较弱。由于台风强度差异是热力和动力因素共同作用的结果，在热力因素方面，潜热通量的大小对台风强度的变化和评估具有重要作用；在动力因素方面，台风眼尺寸对台风强度有明显影响，且在该个例中，其影响相对于潜热通量更为显著。

In this paper, based on the mesoscale numerical forecast model WRFV3.9 with the NECP FNL reanalysis data at a resolution of 0.25°×0.25° as initial field and boundary condition, the No. 5 super Typhoon "Doksuri" in 2023 is simulated with six boundary layer parameterization schemes（MYJ, MYNN, YSU, Acm2,BouLac and SH） to investigate the impacts of different schemes on the simulation of the typhoon track and intensity. The results show that boundary layer schemes have a little effect on the typhoon track but a significantly impact on the typhoon intensity. In general, the typhoon track simulated with the SH scheme and the typhoon intensity simulated with the YSU scheme are most consistent with the best track. From the perspective of typhoon intensity, the MYNN scheme simulates the strongest tangential wind, the strongest warm core structure,and the smallest typhoon eye size. The MYNN scheme produces the strongest typhoon intensity, followed by the SH scheme, and then other schemes. As a combined result of thermal and dynamic factors, the latent heat flux plays an important role in evaluating the typhoon intensity in terms of thermal factors, and the typhoon eye size has a significant impact on typhoon intensity evaluation in terms of dynamic factors.

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