渤黄海海域“回头潮”事件特征分析-海洋预报

渤黄海海域“回头潮”事件特征分析

单位：1. 河海大学海洋学院, 江苏南京 210024;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026··第二期（11-20）

摘要：

“回头潮”不同于一般的风暴潮事件，发生频率较低。本文选取了2024年10月和2025年3月渤黄海两次风暴潮过程进行研究，两次过程都分为两个阶段分析，其中第二阶段增水被称为“回头潮”事件。基于数值模拟和实测数据，分析两次风暴潮事件中增水场和天气形势演变特征。结果表明：两次事件均与北风过境有关，第一阶段中莱州湾、渤海湾、山东半岛等均出现增水情况；而第二阶段风暴增水率先出现在朝鲜半岛西岸，并沿岸逆时针传播，最终渤海和黄海南部海域出现第二次增水情况。天气形势方面，第一阶段后期两者海平面气压分布均呈现“北高南低”的特点，即渤黄海海域同时受北方冷高压和南方低压共同作用，南方低压在一定程度上阻挡冷高压的持续南下，直至冷高压彻底远离渤黄海海域。

The 'return tide' differs from ordinary storm surge events with a lower occurrence frequency. This study selected one storm surge event in October 2024 and another in March 2025 for analysis. Both events were divided into two stages, with the water level rise in the second stage referred to as the 'return tide'. Based on numerical simulations and observed data, the water level rise and weather condition evolution characteristics of the two storm surge events were analyzed. The results show that both events were associated with the passage of northerly winds. During the first stage, water level rises occurred in areas such as Laizhou Bay, Bohai Bay, and the Shandong Peninsula. In the second stage, the storm surge first appeared along the western coast of the Korean Peninsula and then propagated counterclockwise along the coast, eventually causing a second surge in the Bohai Sea and the southern Yellow Sea. Regarding weather conditions, in the later part of the first stage, the sea-level pressure distribution in both cases exhibited a north-high, south-low pattern, saggesting that the Bohai and Yellow Sea regions were influenced simultaneously by a northern cold high-pressure system and a southern low-pressure system. The southern low pressure partially blocked the continuous southward movement of the cold high until it was entirely away from the Bohai and Yellow Sea regions.

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