妈祖海浪模式在浙江海域的业务化应用及检验-海洋预报

妈祖海浪模式在浙江海域的业务化应用及检验

单位：1. 浙江省海洋监测预报中心, 浙江杭州 310007;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026··第二期（21-31）

摘要：

基于国家海洋环境预报中心自主研发的妈祖海浪模式，采用球面质心泰森多边形网格进行数值离散，充分考虑风能摄入、白浪耗散和底摩擦耗散以及波波相互作用，建立浙江省近海-近岸海浪数值预报系统。系统进行了业务化运行实验，并利用中国近海及近岸的浮标数据进行了检验。检验结果表明，妈祖海浪模式能够较好地捕捉冷空气和台风过程引起的海浪变化趋势，24 h预报有效波高的均方根误差近海区域为0.29～0.40 m，近岸区域为0.24～0.40 m。

Based on the Mazu Wave third-generation wave spectral model developed by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, the numerical discretization is carried out using Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellation unstructured grids. The numerical forecasting system for offshore-inshore waves in Zhejiang Province is established by fully considering wind energy input, dissipation caused by whitecaps and bottom friction, as well as wave-wave interactions. The system has undergone operational experiments and been verified against buoys in China's offshore and inshore waters. The verification results show that the Mazu Wave model can effectively capture the wave variation trends induced by cold air and typhoon processes. The root mean square error of the 24-hour forecast for significant wave height is 0.29～0.40 meters in offshore areas and 0.24～0.40 meters in nearshore areas.

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