近百年西北太洋热带气旋频数变化特征与ENSO的关系-海洋预报

近百年西北太洋热带气旋频数变化特征与ENSO的关系

作者：黄勇 ¹ 李崇银 ¹ 2 王颖 ³ 宋彬 ¹

单位：1. 解放军理工大学气象学院, 南京, 211101;
2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京100029;
3. &#

关键词：热带气旋变化特征 ENSO

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2008·25·第一期（80-87）

摘要：

本文根据西北太平洋近106年(1899～2004年)热带气旋系列资料,分析了热带气旋年频数多年变化的统计特征。结果表明:西北太平洋台风频数既存在明显的短周期的年际变化也存在明显长周期的年代际变化,是一种短周期与长周期相互作用的多时间尺度的变化。年际变化与ENSO有明显关系,ENSO事件的当年9月到次年8月冷事件年相对与暖事件年会有更多的台风生成和登陆。在年代际尺度上,106年的台风活动可以分为几个明显的活跃期和不活跃期,这种年代际的变化可能与海气耦合的经向模态调制有关系。

In this paper,we concluded the characteristics of Tropical Cyclones(TCs) activity over the western north Pacific from 1899 to 2004 by using data of serially numbered TCs in northwestern Pacific.The results show that,Firstly,TCs activity variation in northwestern Pacific show clearly interannual and interdecadal periods cycle.It抯 the interactional result of interannual and interdecadal periods cycle.Secondly,interannual periods cycle has relationship with ENSO.El Ni駉 has more TCs frequency than La Ni馻 from September to next August.Thirdly,interdecadal periods cycle can be composed of several active and fallow phases.It抯 possible caused by Pacific Meridional Mode.

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