MM5模式在热带气旋模拟中的应用-海洋预报

MM5模式在热带气旋模拟中的应用

单位：1. 解放军理工大学气象学院军事气象海洋系, 江苏, 南京, 211101;
2. 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏, 南京, 210029;
3. 南京工程学院基础部, 江苏, 南京, 211167

分类号：P732.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2004·2004·第四期（10-15）

摘要：

本文利用3重嵌套的中尺度非静力模式MM5系统,对热带气旋Winnie(1997)在我国登陆前后路径和强度演变进行了数值模拟。模拟结果表明,通过合理地选择Bogus的初始强度和模式启动时间,能较准确地模拟热带气旋登陆前后移动路径和强度演变,所选个例路径模拟误差仅为54.5km。

The dynamic frame and the model physical processes, associated with the parameterization scheme and the general flow, of PSU/NCAR fifth-generation MM5 are introduced in this paper. In this paper, In this paper, as a case study, the numerical simulation of meso-scale model MM5 on tropical cyclone Winnie (1997) is conducted with a triply-nested model before and after its landfall stage, The simulated track and intensity is compared with observed one. The results show that the track could be simulated well with a suitable Bogus initial intensity and the mean error of track is about 54.5km. The model could also reproduce the evolution intensity basically.

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