两次冷空气过程对西北太平洋海况影响的对比分析-海洋预报

两次冷空气过程对西北太平洋海况影响的对比分析

单位：中国卫星海上测控部, 江苏江阴 214431

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2012·29·第一期（60-64）

摘要：

利用NCEPFNL、ECMWF的预报资料、NMWW3(Multi-grid WAVEWATCH Ⅲ)模式的后报海浪资料和JMH气象传真,对2010年1月东亚的两次冷空气过程进行了对比分析,详细分析了天气形势和对西北太平洋海况的影响,揭示了影响程度差异的本质。对比分析表明:长波槽在东亚大槽气候位置的维持有利于西北太平洋发生恶劣海况;孟加拉湾上空南支槽的增强,下游半个波长处副高脊增强,进一步加强我国东部地区500hPa上的西南气流,造成冷空气南侵减弱;EC-MWF对两次冷空气过程高低空96h和168h形势预报准确,240h的海平面形势预报也有较高的参考价值。

By using NCEP FNL, ECMWF forecast, NMWW3 hindcast data and facsimiles from JMH, the comparative analysis of two cases of cold air was carried out. By investigating the weather situation and impact on the Western North Pacific (WNP) intensively, the essential distinctions were revealed. The results are shown as follows: (1) The long-wave trough holding in the climate position of East Asia major trough is in favor of the burst of poor sea condition in the WNP; (2) The Southern branch trough developing in the Bay of Bengal results in the subtropical high ridge enhancing and westward extending in its downstream half wave length position, which will strengthen the upper southwest airflow in Eastern China; (3) ECMWF provides reasonable 96-and 168-hour weather prediction for the two cases of cold air, and also the 240-hour surface sea level prediction was useful for the reference.

参考文献：

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