上海沿海海上搜救预测模型系统的研究和应用-海洋预报

上海沿海海上搜救预测模型系统的研究和应用

单位：1. 国家海洋局东海预报中心, 上海 200081;
2. 华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062

分类号：U676.8

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2013·30·第四期（79-86）

摘要：

利用中尺度气象模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting Model）、无结构网格近岸海洋模式FVCOM（Finite-Volume Coastal and Ocean Model）和基于蒙特卡洛随机统计理论的海上搜救目标漂移轨迹模式Leeway，建立了长江口及邻近海域海上搜救物漂移轨迹预测模型系统。漂移轨迹预测以风和表层海流预报为基础，考虑了包括落水位置和时间、风致漂移方向、搜救目标物状态的不确定性以及风场预报误差带来的漂移路径预测误差，经统计获得搜救目标物可能漂移集合范围。对近年来发生在长江口邻近海域的海难事故后报模拟验证结果证明了Leeway模式在长江口邻近海域的适用性，同时表明所建立的搜救模型系统具有较高的精度，操作方便、时效性高，在搜救业务化预报工作中具有广阔的应用前景。

A meso-scale numerical weather prediction model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model), a finite-volume, unstructured grid coastal and ocean model FVCOM, and a Leeway search and rescue (SAR) model, based on a Monte Carlo technique to generate an ensemble that accounts for the uncertainties in forcing fields, were adopted to establish an operational search and rescue modeling system for Shanghai coast and adjacent sea areas. The trajectories of drifting objects were predicted based on high-resolution wind and surface water current fields. The uncertainties including initial time and position, direction of leeway, state of SAR objects and errors of forecasted wind field were taken into account to generate the ensemble search areas. The successfully rescued cases of maritime incidents in recent years were used to evaluate the performance of the operational model system. The good agreements between model results and observation data proved the applicability of using Leeway model to predict SAR areas in Shanghai coast and adjacent seas. Meanwhile, the results indicated that the modeling system has a wide operational application prospect with advantages of high precision, high efficiency and convenient to be used.

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