21世纪初海洋预报系统发展现状和趋势-海洋预报

21世纪初海洋预报系统发展现状和趋势

单位：海军海洋水文气象中心, 北京 100073

分类号：P732.4

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2013·30·第四期（93-102）

摘要：

海洋预报是一切海上活动的基础，人类社会需求驱动着海洋预报的发展。海洋观测、数据同化、数值模拟和高性能计算机等技术的进步推动着全球海洋业务预报的发展。国际先进的海洋数值模式有NLOM、NCOM、HYCOM、NEMO、MOM、POM和ROMS等。在GODAE和GODAEOceanView项目期间，通过国际合作和交流，全球海洋业务预报系统得到快速发展。21世纪初，全球海洋预报系统水平分辨率最高达到1/32°，预报时效一般为一周，部分海洋预报系统能够预报诊断海洋涡旋和海洋锋等。未来海洋预报系统的分辨率和预报精度将继续提高，预报要素扩展到海洋生态和生物地球化学等学科。海洋数据同化技术、海洋物理过程参数化方案和模式耦合技术是推动海洋预报发展的重要研究方向。

Ocean forecast is the basis of human marine activities. The human demand on ocean environment information drives ocean forecast to advance, with the development of ocean observing system, data assimilation, ocean numerical modeling, and supercomputer. The most popular ocean models are NLOM, NCOM, HYCOM, NEMO, MOM, POM, and ROMS et al. During the GODAE and GODAE OceanView programs, the global ocean operational forecast systems develop and prosper fastly through international cooperation and intercommunion. At the beginning of the 21th century, the highest horizontal resolution of global ocean forecast systems is 1/32°×1/32°, and the longest forecast lead-time is 60 days. Some high resolution global ocean forecast systems can predict and diagnose ocean eddy and front. In the future, ocean forecast systems will do better with higher resolution and less forecast bias, and will provide ecological and biogeochemical forecast. Ocean data assimilation, physical process parameterization and model coupling are crucial for ocean forecast development in the future.

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