上海沿海极大风速预报方程的建立和应用-海洋预报

上海沿海极大风速预报方程的建立和应用

单位：1. 上海海洋气象台, 上海 201306;
2. 民航华东空管局气象中心, 上海 200335

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2014·31·第一期（58-62）

摘要：

运用统计分析方法,对上海沿海3个浮标站的逐小时的2 min平均风速和极大风速进行分析,发现两种风速具有很好的线性关系。通过建立两种风速的回归方程,获得了估计极大风速的客观方程,对3个浮标站,单站一元一次回归方程都能很好得反映2 min平均风速和极大风速的关系,实测极大风速与拟合极大风速的平均绝对误差均小于1 m/s;3个浮标的拟合数据都是以正偏差为主;3个浮标拟合偏差 >2 m/s的样本数都在5%以下。利用WRF模式预报风速进行极大风速试报,结果表明,3个浮标实测极大风速与预报极大风速的平均绝对误差均小于2 m/s,偏差 >4 m/s的样本数在10%以下,TS评分均在74分以上,建立的极大风速客观预报方程的效果比较理想。

Using statistic analysis method, the relationship between 2-minute average wind speed and extreme wind speed of three buoys in Shanghai coastal area is studied. The results show that the two kinds of wind speed have a good linear relationship. By building the regression equation of the two kinds of wind speed, the objective equations of evaluating the extreme speed are achieved. For the three buoys, the one-dimensional linear regression equation can all commendably reflect the relationship between the two kinds of wind speed. The absolute errors between observed extreme wind speed and fitted extreme wind speed of the three buoys are all below 1m/s; the errors of the three buoys are mainly positive; the proportions of the sample whose absolute error is greater than 2m/s are all below 5%. The trial extreme wind prediction results by using WRF output wind show that, the absolute errors between observed extreme wind speed and forecasted extreme wind speed of the three buoys are all below 2m/s; the proportions of the sample whose absolute error is greater than 4m/s are all below 10%; for forecast scores are all above 74, the objective forecast equation of the extreme wind speed has a good performance.

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