A1B气候情景下海平面变化对东中国海风暴潮的影响-海洋预报

A1B气候情景下海平面变化对东中国海风暴潮的影响

单位：1. 国家海洋局天津海洋环境监测中心站, 天津300457;
2. 中国海洋大学海洋环境学院, 山东青岛266100

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2014·31·第五期（20-29）

摘要：

用三维水动力模型Ecomsed, 在第四次IPCC 评估报告SRES A1B气候情景下, 分析21 世纪海平面变化对东中国海风暴潮及沿岸脆弱性的影响。在A1B气候情景海平面变化影响下, 对17个台风个例进行模拟。结果表明:受海平面变化影响风暴潮增减水出现大概10 cm的变化, 风暴潮增水提前, 风暴潮增水时段延长;台风强度越大, 海平面变化对风暴潮增水强度的影响越明显。海平面变化对海岸带脆弱性具有很大影响, 苏北浅滩及环渤海海岸带脆弱性将增强, 校核水位在东中国海将会增大。

Based on the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario, the sea level variations in 21st century and the impact of sea level variations on storm surge along the coast of the East China Sea are analyzed using a three-dimensional high-resolution hydrodynamic model (Ecomsed). The "SRES A1B scenario storm surge" combined with the relevant monthly sea level in the 2060 year was simulated through 17 typhoon cases from 1989 to 2008. Residual elevation difference performed 10 cm in the three tide gauges. The influence of sea level variation on the maximal residual elevation and check water levels mapped the geographical variability. The maximal residual elevation would increased along the northern coastline of the Jiangsu province, and areas surrounding Bohai Sea, where would be the more vulnerable area. The check water in the 21st century would become higher as sea level varying.

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