基于SWAN模式的全球有效波高数值预报结果之初步验证-海洋预报

基于SWAN模式的全球有效波高数值预报结果之初步验证

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2015·32·第六期（1-9）

摘要：

利用国家海洋环境预报中心基于SWAN模式和NCEP预报风场模拟的全球海浪预报场,结合Jason-2卫星高度计和NDBC浮标资料对全球海浪场进行了自2013年7月到2014年6月为期1 a的统计检验。结果表明:预报波高与实测值吻合较好,24 h、48 h、72 h预报的均方根误差均小于0.6 m,偏差绝对值均小于0.1 m,相关系数均大于0.91。有效波高的预报精度随预报时效的增加而降低,预报误差在48 h内变化不大,而在48 h后明显增大。有效波高的预报偏差存在地域性差别,全球西风带和热带地区的偏差较大,而赤道无风带和副热带高压控制地区的偏差较小。

An operational wave forecast system was established by National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) based on the third-generation wave model SWAN and global wind fields of NCEP from July 2013 to June 2014. A detailed study of the performance against the altimeter satellite data provided by Janson-2 satellite and buoy data from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) is presented. Results suggest that the forecasted significant wave heights (SWH) are in good agreement with the observed value along with a high correlation coefficient (>0.91) and a low bias (<0.1 m) as well as the RMS error (<0.6 m) concluded in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. The accuracy of forecast wave heights decrease as the forecasting time increases, and the prediction error grows slightly within 48h, but increase rapidly after 48h. Besides, the prediction errors of SWH exist regional differences. The prediction errors in the westerlies and tropical regions are bigger, while the regions of doldrums and subtropical high-pressure belt are smaller.

参考文献：

[1] Janssen P A E M, Hansen B, Bidlot J R. Verification of the ECMWF Wave Forecasting System Against Buoy and Altimeter Data[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 1997, 12(4):763-784.
[2] Tolman H L. Effects of Numerics on the Physics in a Third-Generation Wind-Wave Model[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1992, 22(10):1095-1111.
[3] Tolman H L, Balasubramaniyan B, Burroughs L D, et al. Development and Implementation of Wind-Generated Ocean Surface Wave Modelsat NCEP[J].Weather and Forecasting,2002,17(2):311-333.
[4] Tolman H L. A Mosaic Approach to Wind Wave Modeling[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2008, 25(1-2):35-47.
[5] Chawla A, Tolman H L, Gerald V, et al. A Multigrid Wave Forecasting Model:A New Paradigm in Operational Wave Forecasting[J].Weather and Forecasting, 2013, 28(4):1057-1078.
[6] Rogers W E, Wittmann P A, Wang D W C, et al. Evaluations of Global Wave Prediction at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2005, 20(5):745-760.
[7] Ueno K, Kohno N. The Development of the Third Generation Wave Model MRI-Ⅲ for Operational Use[C]//Proc. 8th Int. Workshop onWave Hindcasting and Forecasting, Hawaii, 2004.
[8] 许富祥.海浪预报知识讲座第十四讲海浪预报技术及预报方法(7)——海浪数值预报(Ⅲ)[J].海洋预报, 2010, 27(5):90-100.
[9] SWAN Team. SWAN Cycle Ⅲ Version 40.51 User Manual[Z]. Delft University of Technology, 2600.
[10] Rogers W E, Kaihatu J M, Petit H A H, et al. Diffusion Reduction in An Arbitrary Scale Third Generation Wind Wave Model[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2002, 29(11):1357-1390.
[11] Booij N, Ris R C, Holthuijsen L H. A Third-Generation Wave Model for Coastal Regions:1. Model Description and Validation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1999, 104(C4):7649-7666.
[12] Janssen P A E M. The Interaction of Ocean Waves and Wind[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2004.
[13] Janssen P A E M. Progress in Ocean Wave Forecasting[J]. Journal of Computational Physics, 2008, 227(7):3572-3594.
[14] Cavaleri L, Alves J H G M, Ardhuin F, et al. Wave Modelling-The State of the Art[J]. Progress in Oceanography, 2007, 75(4):603-674.
[15] Wang Y, Jiang X W. Improvement and Application of a Saturation Based Wave Dissipation Function in SWAN Model[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2012, 31(1):24-32.
[16] Banner M L, Gemmrich J R, Farmer D M. Multiscale Measurements of Ocean Wave Breaking Probability[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 2002, 32(12):3364-3375.
[17] van der Westhuysen A J, Zijlema M, Battjes J A. Nonlinear Saturation-Based Whitecapping Dissipation in SWAN for Deep and ShallowWater[J]. Coastal Engineering, 2007, 54(2):151-170.
[18] Hasselmann K, Barnett T P, Bouws E, et al. Measurements of Wind-Wave Growth and Swell Decay During the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP)[R]. Deutches Hydrographisches Institut, 1973:95.
[19] Babanin A V, Soloviev Y P. Field Investigation of Transformation of the Wind Wave Frequency Spectrum with Fetch and the Stage of Development[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 28(4):563-576.
[20] Ardhuin F, Chapron B, Collard F. Observation of Swell Dissipation Across Oceans[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(6):L06607.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】