基于受力分析的落水人员漂移轨迹预测研究-海洋预报

基于受力分析的落水人员漂移轨迹预测研究

单位：1. 国家海洋局南海调查技术中心, 广东广州 510310;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 国家海洋局南海维权技术与应用重点实验室, 广东广州 510310

分类号：U676.8⁺3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2017·34·第一期（66-71）

摘要：

介绍了一种基于受力分析的预报海上搜救落水人员漂移轨迹的理论方法。对落水人员进行受力分析，得出落水人员在风、波浪、海流作用下的漂移轨迹数学模型，利用龙格库塔数值方法求解漂移轨迹。通过48 h海上仿真人漂移试验进行验证，结果表明：落水人员理论计算漂移轨迹与海上试验实际漂移轨迹吻合良好，说明该理论计算方法可靠。同时，通过理论计算分析了波浪对落水人员漂移轨迹的影响，发现波浪对落水人员漂移轨迹的影响相对较小，但是考虑波浪的情况下更接近实际漂移轨迹，预报精度提高2.86%。

Based on force analysis, a theoretical model predicting the person-in-water drift trajectory for search and rescue missions is presented in this work. The drift model is based on the law of force analysis which govern the motion of a floating body in a given wind, surface current and wave field. The result shows that the model predictions are in agreement with field test results. This illustrates that the presented models can provide reliable person-in-water drift trajectory for the search and rescue. At the same time, through the theoretical calculation of wave impact on people in the water drift trajectory, study found that the effect of wave on people in the water trajectory is relatively small, but considering the wave condition more close to the actual trajectory, improve the prediction accuracy of 2.86%.

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