马尼拉海沟潜在地震海啸对我国华南沿海危险性研究-海洋预报

马尼拉海沟潜在地震海啸对我国华南沿海危险性研究

单位：清华大学深圳研究生院海洋学部, 广东深圳 518055

分类号：P731.25;P738.4

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2017·34·第二期（43-50）

摘要：

采用COMCOT模型建立南海多重嵌套网格对马尼拉海沟潜在震源进行数值模拟，评估马尼拉海沟地震海啸对我国华南附近海域的影响。敏感性分析结果表明：马尼拉海沟地震震源深度为33~40 km时，地震引发的海啸危险性最大；在此基础上，设置5 种马尼拉海沟潜在地震海啸情景，其中情景二、四和五，其地震震级分别为M_w8.6、M_w8.8 和M_w9.0，引发的海啸会严重威胁到我国华南沿海大部分海域，危险等级为III-IV 级，有淹没至严重淹没危险。

Multiple nested grid was applied using COMCOT model to simulate the hypothetical tsunamis triggered by Manila Trench in the South China Sea, and their impacts along the South China coast were assessed. Sensitivity analysis shows that the focal depth of the worst earthquake tsunami scenario is about 33~40 km. Five earthquake scenarios along the Manila Trench were simulated. Scenarios 2、4 and 5, with the magnitude of M_w8.6、 M_w8.8 and M_w9.0, respectively, may reach III to IV tsunami hazard level on the South China coast, causing inundation or serious inundation hazard.

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