微波温湿遥感资料在台风路径模拟中的同化试验-海洋预报

微波温湿遥感资料在台风路径模拟中的同化试验

单位：中国人民解放军 61741部队, 北京 100029

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2018·35·第一期（1-11）

摘要：

基于WRF模式及其3DVar同化系统，针对1513号超强台风“苏迪罗”，对NOAA卫星中探测大气温度的AMSU-A资料和探测大气湿度的MHS资料进行同化，考察同化不同类型微波遥感资料对台风路径模拟的影响，结果表明：同化AMSU-A资料对台风路径模拟的改善要大于MHS资料，相对于控制试验，同化AMSU-A资料在预报时间段内将台风平均路径误差最多降低了49 km，而同化MHS资料则最多降低了29 km；组合同化AMSU-A和MHS资料并没有进一步提高台风路径模拟结果，这说明同化更多的资料量不一定能进一步改善台风路径的预报；同化AMSU-A资料对初始场的调整强度和范围大于MHS资料，但经过模式一段时间的积分，同化两类资料对物理场的调整强度接近；同化两类资料对物理场的调整与其对台风路径模拟的调整有着较好的对应。

Based on the WRF model and 3DVar assimilation method, the AMSU-A data for atmospheric temperature detection and MHS data for atmospheric temperature humidity of NOAA satellites were assimilated in the event of the super typhoon "soudelor"(Number 13, 2015), which aims to investigate the effects of assimilating different remote sensing data on typhoon track's simulation. The results demonstrated, the improvement of typhoon track simulation accuracy after assimilating AMSU-A data is larger than that after assimilating MHS data. Under different control experiments, the average track error of typhoon is decreased by 49km at most by assimilating AMSU-A data, while the average track error of typhoon is decreased by 29km at most by assimilating MHS data. the effectiveness of assimilating a combined data set include AMSU-A and MHS data on the improvement of the typhoon track was not better than that of assimilating separate data.. The intensity and range of adjustment on the initial field by assimilating AMSU-A data is larger than that by assimilating MHS data. After the model's integration for a period of time, the adjustment intensity on the physical field by assimilating two types of data became closer. The adjustment of the physical field by assimilating microwave remote sensing data well correspond to the adjustment on the typhoon track's simulation.

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