气旋引发渤海异常增水特征研究

作者：傅赐福1  于福江1 2  吴少华1 2  董剑希1 2

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081; 2. 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

关键词：气旋 异常增水 开尔文波 渤海

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2018·35·第一期（37-43）

摘要：

分析了渤海两次由不同强度气旋引发的异常增水过程，分析结果表明：当气旋强度强，影响时间长，则存在若干周期的异常震荡增水，位于湾底的潮位站各周期最大增水呈现“跳绳”形态；反之则可能在一个周期内，异常增水波便消散。建立渤海异常增水模型，推导增水波传播速度，即为开尔文波的形式。两次过程增水理论与实际传播时间平均误差为1.0 h和0.75 h，说明渤海异常增水波传播符合开尔文波特征。根据气旋强度和辽东湾各站的风暴潮情况，按照各站间的理论传播时间特征可以有效解决和提高此类风暴潮过程的漏报错报情况。

Abnormal storm surge caused by two cyclones under different intensity was analyzed in the paper. The results showed that under high intensity and long-term influence of cyclone, there would be several cycles of abnormal storm surge, and the peak storm surge of tidal gauges which located at the bottom of the Bay in each cycle presented a "Jump rope" shape. The abnormal storm surge would bedisappeared in a cycle. The model of abnormal storm surge in the Bohai sea was established, and the wave propagation velocity was deduced, that was Kelvin wave form. The average errors of the two cyclone processes compared with the observations were 1.0 and 0.75 hour respectively, which indicated that the abnormal increase wave propagation characteristic accorded with Kelvin wave in the Bohai Sea. According to the cyclone intensity, the storm surge at Liaodong Bay tidal gauges and the theoretical propagation time between the tidal gauges, it could effectively solve and improve the storm surge forecasting.

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