海平面年际变化研究进展 |
作者:张永垂1 禹凯2 史剑1 张文静1 |
单位:1. 国防科技大学气象海洋学院, 江苏 南京 211101; 2. 南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044 |
关键词:海平面 年际变化 风应力 海洋Rossby波 |
分类号:P731.23 |
|
出版年·卷·期(页码):2018·35·第一期(95-102) |
摘要:
|
对影响中国近海海平面年际变化的气候模态(包括ENSO和PDO)做了回顾。指出目前海平面年际变化研究的热点和难点问题,如区域海平面加速上升、自然变率和人为因素对海平面变化的相对作用大小和区域海平面年际变化的可预测性等。 |
The interannual variation of sea level under the global warming is reviewed. The impact of external forcing and internal physical processes on interannual sea level and the climate modes affecting the sea level in China marginal seas are summarized. The hot-spots of the study of interannual variability of sea level are pointed. |
参考文献:
|
[1] Church J A, Clark P U, Cazenave A, et al. Sea Level Change[M]//Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013. [2] Han W Q, Meehl G A, Stammer D, et al. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes[J]. Surveys in Geophysics, 2017, 38(1):217-250. [3] Nerem R S, Chambers D P, Choe C, et al. Estimating Mean Sea Level Change from the TOPEX and Jason Altimeter Missions[J]. Marine Geodesy, 2010, 33(S1):435-446. [4] 吴涛, 康建成, 王芳, 等. 全球海平面变化研究新进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(7):730-737. [5] 颜梅, 左军成, 傅深波, 等. 全球及中国海海平面变化研究进展[J]. 海洋环境科学, 2008, 27(2):197-200. [6] Cazenave A, Remy F. Sea Level and Climate:Measurements and Causes of Changes[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change, 2011, 2(5):647-662. [7] Meyssignac B, Cazenave A. Sea Level:a Review of Present-day and Recent-past Changes and Variability[J]. Journal of Geodynamics, 2012, 58:96-109. [8] Stammer D, Cazenave A, Ponte R M, et al. Causes for Contemporary Regional Sea Level Changes[J]. Annual Review of Marine Science, 2013, 5:21-46. [9] Jayne S R, Wahr J M, Bryan F O. Observing Ocean Heat Content Using Satellite Gravity and Altimetry[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2003, 108(C2):13-1-13-12. [10] Piecuch C G. Dynamics of Satellite-derived Interannual Ocean Bottom Pressure Variability in the Western Tropical North Pacific[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2013, 118(10):5117-5128. [11] Carton J A, Giese B S, Grodsky S A. Sea Level Rise and the Warming of the Oceans in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Ocean Reanalysis[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2005, 110(C9):C09006. [12] Wunsch C, Heimbach P. Practical Global Oceanic State Estimation[J]. Physica D:Nonlinear Phenomena, 2007, 230(1-2):197-208. [13] Boening C, Willis J K, Landerer F W, et al. The 2011 La Niña:So Strong, the Oceans Fell[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(19):L19602. [14] Willis J K, Chambers D P, Nerem R S. Assessing the Globally Averaged Sea Level Budget on Seasonal to Interannual Timescales[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2008, 113(C6):C06015. [15] Chambers D P, Cazenave A, Champollion N, et al. Evaluation of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget Between 1993 and 2014[J]. Surveys in Geophysics, 2017, 38(1):309-327. [16] García-García D, Chao B F, Boy J -P. Steric and Mass-induced Sea Level Variations in the Mediterranean Sea Revisited[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2010, 115(C12):C12016. [17] Kelly K A, Singh S, Huang R X. Seasonal Variations of Sea Surface Height in the Gulf Stream Region[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1999, 29(3):313-327. [18] Vivier F, Kelly K A, Thompson L. Contributions of Wind Forcing, Waves, and Surface Heating to Sea Surface Height Observations in the Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 1999, 104(C9):20767-20788. [19] Chen J L, Shum C K, Wilson C R, et al. Seasonal Sea Level Change from TOPEX/Poseidon Observation and Thermal Contribution[J]. Journal of Geodesy, 2000, 73(12):638-647. [20] Moon J H, Tony Song Y. Sea Level and Heat Content Changes in the Western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2013, 118(4):2014-2022. [21] Vinogradov S V, Ponte R M, Heimbach P, et al. The Mean Seasonal Cycle in Sea Level Estimated from a Data-constrained General Circulation Model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2008, 113(C3):C03032. [22] Timmermann A, Mcgregor S, Jin F F. Wind Effects on Past and Future Regional Sea Level Trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23(16):4429-4437. [23] Merrifield M A. A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends During the 1990s[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(15):4126-4138. [24] Merrifield M A, Maltrud M E. Regional Sea Level Trends Due to a Pacific Trade Wind Intensification[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38(21):L21605. [25] Bromirski P D, Miller A J, Flick R E, et al. Dynamical Suppression of Sea Level Rise Along the Pacific Coast of North America:Indications for Imminent Acceleration[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2011, 116(C7):C07005. [26] Sturges W, Douglas B C. Wind Effects on Estimates of Sea Level Rise[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2011, 116(C6):C06008. [27] Sallenger Jr A H, Doran K S, Howd P A. Hotspot of Accelerated Sea-level Rise on the Atlantic Coast of North America[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(12):884-888. [28] Andres M, Gawarkiewicz G G, Toole J M. Interannual Sea Level Variability in the Western North Atlantic:Regional Forcing and Remote Response[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(22):5915-5919. [29] Woodworth P L, Morales Maqueda M A, Roussenov V M, et al. Mean Sea-level Variability Along the Northeast American Atlantic Coast and the Roles of the Wind and the Overturning Circulation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2014, 119(12):8916-8935. [30] Piecuch C G, Ponte R M. Buoyancy-driven Interannual Sea Level Changes in the Southeast Tropical Pacific[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(5):L05607. [31] Mcgregor S, Gupta A S, England M H. Constraining Wind Stress Products with Sea Surface Height Observations and Implications for Pacific Ocean Sea Level Trend Attribution[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(23):8164-8176. [32] Zhang X, Church J A. Sea Level Trends, Interannual and Decadal Variability in the Pacific Ocean[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(21):L21701. [33] Miller L, Douglas B C. Gyre-scale Atmospheric Pressure Variations and Their Relation to 19th and 20th Century Sea Level Rise[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(16):L16602. [34] Woodworth P L, Pouvreau N, Woppelmann G. The Gyre-scale Circulation of the North Atlantic and Sea Level at Brest[J]. Ocean Science, European Geosciences Union, 2010, 6(1):185-190. [35] Piecuch C G, Ponte R M. Mechanisms of Interannual Steric Sea Level Variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38(15):L15605. [36] Yin J, Goddard P B. Oceanic Control of Sea Level Rise Patterns Along the East Coast of the United States[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(20):5514-5520. [37] Ezer T, Atkinson L P, Corlett W B, et al. Gulf Stream's Induced Sea Level Rise and Variability Along the US Mid-Atlantic Coast[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2013, 118(2):685-697. [38] Ezer T. Sea Level Rise, Spatially Uneven and Temporally Unsteady:Why the US East Coast, the Global Tide Gauge Record, and the Global Altimeter Data Show Different Trends[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(20):5439-5444. [39] Calafat F M, Chambers D P, Tsimplis M N. Mechanisms of Decadal Sea Level Variability in the Eastern North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2012, 117(C9):C09022. [40] Marcos M, Puyol B, Calafat F M, et al. Sea Level Changes at Tenerife Island (ne Tropical Atlantic) Since 1927[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2013, 118(10):4899-4910. [41] Calafat F M, Chambers D P, Tsimplis M N. Inter-annual to Decadal Sea-level Variability in the Coastal Zones of the Norwegian and Siberian Seas:The Role of Atmospheric Forcing[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2013, 118(3):1287-1301. [42] Chelton D B, Schlax M G. Global Observations of Oceanic Rossby Waves[J]. Science, 1996, 272(5259):234-238. [43] Suzuki T, Ishii M. Regional Distribution of Sea Level Changes Resulting from Enhanced Greenhouse Warming in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 3.2[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38(2):L02601. [44] Venzke S, Münnich M, Latif M. On the Predictability of Decadal Changes in the North Pacific[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2000, 16(5):379-392. [45] Schneider N, Miller A J. Predicting Western North Pacific Ocean Climate[J]. Journal of Climate, 2001, 14(20):3997-4002. [46] Zhang H, Wu L. Predicting North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability on the Basis of the First-mode Baroclinic Rossby Wave Model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2010, 115(C9):C09030. [47] Nonaka M, Sasaki H, Taguchi B, et al. Potential Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Extension Jet Speed in an Eddy-resolving OGCM[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(10):3645-3652. [48] Qiu B, Chen S, Schneider N, et al. A Coupled Decadal Prediction of the Dynamic State of the Kuroshio Extension System[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27(4):1751-1764. [49] 张永垂, 张立凤. Rossby波模型对西北太平洋海表面高度年际变异的可预测性研究[J]. 海洋与湖沼, 2013, 44(6):1409-1417. [50] 张永垂, 张立凤. 北太平洋Rossby波研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(11):1219-1228. [51] Qiu B, Chen S. Multidecadal Sea Level and Gyre Circulation Variability in the Northwestern Tropical Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 2012, 42(1):193-206. [52] 杨春辉, 顾小丽, 李培良, 等. Rossby波对菲律宾以东太平洋海平面年际变化的影响研究[J]. 海洋与湖沼, 2013, 44(1):23-29. [53] 张永垂, 张立凤, 王业桂. 北太平洋海表面高度的年际变化及其机制[J]. 地球物理学报, 2010, 53(2):247-255. [54] Penduff T, Juza M, Barnier B, et al. Sea Level Expression of Intrinsic and Forced Ocean Variabilities at Interannual Time Scales[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(21):5652-5670. [55] Penduff T, Juza M, Brodeau L, et al. Impact of Global Ocean Model Resolution on Sea-level Variability with Emphasis on Interannual Time Scales[J]. Ocean Science, 2010, 6(1):269-284. [56] Hallberg R, Adcroft A, Dunne J P, et al. Sensitivity of TwentyFirst-Century Global-Mean Steric Sea Level Rise to Ocean Model Formulation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(9):2947-2956. [57] Marcos M, Tsimplis M N, Calafat F M. Inter-annual and Decadal Sea Level Variations in the North-western Pacific Marginal Seas[J]. Progress in Oceanography, 2012, 105:4-21. [58] Zhang X, Wang X, Cao Y, et al. Climate Modulation on Sea Surface Height in China Seas[J]. Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2015, 33(5):1245-1255. [59] 刘雪源, 刘玉光, 郭琳, 等. 30°N两侧东海海平面的低频变化及其与ENSO的关系[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2009, 29(4):55-63. [60] 刘雪源, 刘玉光, 郭琳, 等. 渤黄海海平面的变化及其与ENSO的关系[J]. 海洋通报, 2009, 28(5):34-42. [61] Liu X, Liu Y, Guo L, et al. Interannual Changes of Sea Level in the Two Regions of East China Sea and Different Responses to ENSO[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2010, 72(3):215-226. [62] Zuo J, He Q, Chen C, et al. Sea Level Variability in East China Sea and its Response to ENSO[J]. Water Science and Engineering, 2012, 5(2):164-174. [63] 王慧, 范文静, 张建立, 等. 中国沿海近31年冬季海平面变化特征[J]. 海洋通报, 2011, 30(6):637-643. [64] Han G, Huang W. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Sea Level Variability in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 2008, 38(12):2772-2783. [65] 顾小丽, 李培良. 太平洋海平面变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 海洋学报, 2009, 31(1):28-36. [66] 袁林旺, 罗文, 徐良将, 等. 西北太平洋海区年际至十年际海面变化尺度耦合与波动转型[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(12):2201-2211. [67] Gordon A L, Giulivi C F. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Sea Level in the Japan/East Sea[J]. Deep Sea Research Part I:Oceanographic Research Papers, 2004, 51(5):653-663. [68] 荣增瑞, 刘玉光, 陈满春, 等. 全球和南海海平面变化及其与厄尔尼诺的关系[J]. 海洋通报, 2008, 27(1):1-8. [69] 丘福文, 方文东, 郭朴. 2000-2008年期间南海海面温度的年际与空间变异[J]. 海洋学报, 2011, 33(3):11-18. [70] Cheng X, Xie S, Du Y, et al. Interannual-to-decadal Variability and Trends of Sea Level in the South China Sea[J]. Climate dynamics, 2016, 46(9-10):3113-3126. [71] Cheng Y, Plag H, Hamlington B D, et al. Regional Sea Level Variability in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea[J]. Continental Shelf Research, 2015, 111:95-107. [72] Visser H, Dangendorf S, Petersen A C. A Review of Trend Models Applied to Sea Level Data with Reference to the"Accelerationdeceleration Debate"[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2015, 120(6):3873-3895. [73] Boon J D. Evidence of Sea Level Acceleration at US and Canadian Tide Stations, Atlantic Coast, North America[J]. Journal of Coastal Research, 2012, 28(6):1437-1445. [74] Ezer T, Corlett W B. Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating in the Chesapeake Bay? A Demonstration of a Novel New Approach for Analyzing Sea Level Data[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(19):L19605. [75] Houston J R, Dean R G. Sea-level Acceleration Based on US Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-gauge Analyses[J]. Journal of Coastal Research, 2011, 27(3):409-417. [76] Watson P J. Acceleration in US Mean Sea Level? A New Insight Using Improved Tools[J]. Journal of Coastal Research, 2016, 32(6):1247-1261. [77] Hamlington B D, Leben R R, Strassburg M W, et al. Contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to Global Mean Sea Level Trends[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(19):5171-5175. [78] Kopp R E. Does the Mid-Atlantic United States Sea Level Acceleration Hot Spot Reflect Ocean Dynamic Variability?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(15):3981-3985. [79] Houston J R, Dean R G. Effects of Sea-level Decadal Variability on Acceleration and Trend Difference[J]. Journal of Coastal Research, 2013, 29(5):1062-1072. [80] Chambers D P, Merrifield M A, Nerem R S. Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(18):L18607. [81] Marcos M, Marzeion B, Dangendorf S, et al. Internal Variability Versus Anthropogenic Forcing on Sea Level and Its Components[J]. Surveys in Geophysics, 2017, 38(1):329-348. [82] Marcos M, Amores A. Quantifying Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to Thermosteric Sea Level Rise[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, 41(7):2502-2507. [83] Hu A, Deser C. Uncertainty in Future Regional Sea Level Rise Due to Internal Climate Variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(11):2768-2772. [84] Calafat F M, Chambers D P. Quantifying Recent Acceleration in Sea Level Unrelated to Internal Climate Variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(14):3661-3666. [85] Lyu K, Zhang X, Church J A, et al. Time of Emergence for Regional Sea-level Change[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014:1006-1010. [86] Moss R H, Edmonds J A, Hibbard K A, et al. The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment[J]. Nature, 2010, 463(7282):747-756. [87] Meehl G A, Goddard L, Boer G, et al. Decadal Climate Prediction:an Update from the Trenches[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014, 95(2):243-267. [88] Meehl G A, Goddard L, Murphy J, et al. Decadal Prediction:Can it be Skillful?[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009, 90(10):1467-1485. [89] Murphy J, Kattsov V, Keenlyside N, et al. Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change[J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2010, 1:287-304. [90] Solomon A, Goddard L, Kumar A, et al. Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability:Implications for Prediction[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2011, 92(2):141-156. |
服务与反馈:
|
【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】
|
|
|