ENSO非对称性对热带降水的影响研究-海洋预报

ENSO非对称性对热带降水的影响研究

单位：1. 泉州海洋环境监测预报中心, 福建泉州 362000;
2. 中国海洋大学, 山东青岛 266000

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2019·36·第一期（59-68）

摘要：

利用1966—2015年多种海气资料，分析了热带太平洋海域的ENSO非对称性表现，结果表明：在赤道东太平洋，ENSO暖事件强度大于ENSO冷事件，而在赤道中、西太平洋上与之相反，即在振幅强度和发生位置上存在不对称。研究还发现，在厄尔尼诺年的冬季，热带印度洋-太平洋海域整体上呈现出“正-负-正”的降水异常分布形势，而在拉尼娜年冬季，则呈现出“负-正-负-正”的降水异常分布形势，并且，降水距平的正负异常中心在厄尔尼诺年与拉尼娜年冬季存在纬向不同程度的偏移，表现出ENSO冷暖事件年冬季降水异常的非对称性。通过定量计算降水对热带海域的贡献，得到赤道中太平洋的降水量主要来源于厄尔尼诺年，赤道东太平洋的降水则主要来源于拉尼娜年，而热带印度洋及赤道西太平洋的大部分降水由中性年贡献。此外，对热带印度洋-太平洋划分厄尔尼诺强度与热带降水线性与非线性区域，发现在赤道西太平洋和赤道中太平洋及其偏东区域线性关系较为明显。

Multiple sets of marine meteorological data from 1966 to 2015 are used to analyze the characteristics of ENSO asymmetry in tropical Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the intensity of ENSO warm event is greater than that of ENSO cold event in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean., whereas it is opposite in the equatorial mid and western Pacific Ocean with asymmetry in amplitude intensity and position. Furthermore, the precipitation anomaly shows a "positive-negative-positive" pattern in the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean during the winter of El Niño event, while it shows a "negative-positive-negative-positive" pattern during the winter of La Niña event. The positive and negative center of precipitation anomaly during the winter of El Niño event and La Niña event reveals meridional deviation in various degree, which demonstrate the asymmetry of precipitation anomaly in the winter of ENSO cold and warm events. Quantitative calculation of the contribution of precipitation to the tropical ocean suggest that precipitation mainly is gained in El Nino years in the equatorial mid-Pacific Ocean and gained in La Niña years in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, whereas it is largely gained in neutral years in the tropical Indian Ocean and the equatorial western Pacific Ocean. In addition, a significant linear relationship is found between the equatorial western Pacific Ocean and the equatorial mid-Pacific and its adjacent eastern areas by dividing the linear and non-linear areas of El Niño intensity and tropical precipitation in the tropical IndianPacific Ocean.

参考文献：

[1] Bjerknes J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial pacific[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1969, 97(3):163-172.
[2] 徐康. 东部和中部型ENSO模态及其对中国降水影响的差异[D]. 南京:南京信息工程大学, 2013.
[3] Rasmusson E M, Wallace J M. Meteorological aspects of the El NiñoNiño/Southern oscillation[J]. Science, 1983, 222(4629):1195-1202.
[4] Cane M A, Zebiak S E. A theory for El NiñoNiño and the Southern Oscillation[J]. Science, 1985:228(4703):1085-1087.
[5] Philander S G H. El Niño NiñoSouthern oscillation phenomena[J]. Nature, 1983, 302(5906):295-301.
[6] An S I, Jin F F. Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004, 17(12):2399-2412.
[7] Okumura Y M, Deser C. Asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Nina[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23(21):5826-5843.
[8] Dommenget D, Bayr T, Frauen C. Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El NiñoNiño Southern Oscillation[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40(11-12):2825-2847.
[9] Frauen C, Dommenget D, Tyrrell N. Analysis of the Nonlinearity of El NiñoNiño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27(16):6225-6244.
[10] Hoerling M P, Kumar A, Zhong M. El NiñoNiño, la Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections[J]. Journal of Climate, 1997, 10(8):1769-1786.
[11] Kessler W S. Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, 29(23):2125.
[12] Ohba M, Ueda H. An impact of SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean in acceleration of the El NiñoNiño to La Nina transition[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 2007, 85(3):335-348.
[13] An S I, Ham Y G, Kug J S. El NiñoNiño-La Niña asymmetry in the coupled model intercomparison project simulations[J]. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18(14):2617-2627.
[14] Ropelewski C F, Halpert M S. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation[J]. MonthlyWeather Review, 1987, 115(8):1606-1626.
[15] 龚道溢, 王绍武. 近百年ENSO对全球陆地及中国降水的影响[J]. 科学通报, 1999, 44(3):315-320.
[16] Zhang C D. Large-scale variability of atmospheric deep convection in relation to sea surface temperature in the tropics[J]. Journal of Climate, 1993, 6(10):1898-1913.
[17] Waliser D E, Graham N E, Gautier C. Comparison of the highly reflective cloud and outgoing longwave radiation datasets for use in estimating tropical deep convection[J]. Journal of Climate, 1993, 6(2):331-353.
[18] Lau K M, Wu H T, Bony S. The role of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the relationship between tropical convection and sea surface temperature[J]. Journal of Climate, 1997, 10(3):381-392.
[19] 阮成卿, 刘秦玉. 中国南海海表面温度与对流关系初探[J]. 中国海洋大学学报, 2011, 41(7-8):24-28.
[20] 王素. 四类ENSO事件对东南亚降水异常的影响[J]. 杭州:浙江大学, 2015.
[21] 薄燕青, 吴洪宝. ENSO年份的确定及其典型事件分析[J]. 科技情报开发与经济, 2008, 18(26):110-112.
[22] Burgers G, Stephenson D B. The"normality"of El NiñoNiño[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1999, 26(8):1027-1030.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】