印度洋区域地震海啸数值预报系统的建立-海洋预报

印度洋区域地震海啸数值预报系统的建立

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心(自然资源部海啸预警中心)自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.36

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2020·37·第六期（1-8）

摘要：

建立了印度洋区域地震海啸数值预报系统，主要包括海啸源计算模块、海啸传播计算模块和预警分析模块。借助GPU并行加速技术和GMT绘图软件，系统能够在1 min内产出海啸传播时间和最大波幅图以及印度洋岸段危险警示图，还可以针对重点城市和港口做定点预报。筛选了2004年以来发生在印度洋区域的4次震级Mw8.0以上地震海啸事件对预报系统的性能进行测试。结果显示：32个验潮站的海啸传播时间计算误差约为15 min，44个站点波幅计算误差不超过30%，危险性分析准确率可达86%。

An earthquake-induced tsunami forecast system for the Indian Ocean is established in this study, which is composed of tsunami generation calculation, tsunami propagation simulation and hazard analysis. Based on the GPU acceleration technology and GMT software, the system can generate estimate tsunami arrival time, maximum amplitude maps and coastal threat maps along the Indian Ocean shores within one minute. It can also customize the forecasts for key cities and ports. The performance of the forecasting system is validated by simulating the four earthquake-induced tsunami events with a magnitude above Mw8.0 that occurred in the Indian Ocean since 2004. The results show that the absolute error of the estimated tsunami travel time at 32 tide stations is about 15 minutes, and the relative error of the wave amplitude at 44 stations is within 30%. Furthermore, the forecast accuracy of the risk analysis can reach 86%.

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