基于GODAE Ocean View标准的全球海洋环流预报系统评估-海洋预报

基于GODAE Ocean View标准的全球海洋环流预报系统评估

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

关键词：全球海洋环流预报系统 GODAE Ocean View 海表温度 Class4标准

分类号：P731.31

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2020·37·第六期（44-51）

摘要：

基于USGODAE的现场漂流浮标观测数据，利用GODAE Ocean View框架下的IVTT Class4标准，评估了国家海洋环境预报中心业务化中等分辨率版本全球海洋环流预报系统的海表温度预报技巧。结果表明：该系统的海表温度预报均方根误差范围在0.65~0.73℃左右，在国际7个业务化系统中，预报精度处于中等水平。无论相对于延续性预报场或气候态预报场，其技巧评分皆为正值，说明该系统对海表温度的预报性能优于自身延续性预报和气候态场预报。

This paper evaluates the performance of the Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting system (CGOFS) with the intermediate resolution version in forecasting SST using the Intercomparison and Validation Task Team Class4 metrics under the framework of GODAE Ocean View. The observational SST data observations used for validation in this study are the in-situ surface drifting bouys that are archived by the USGODAE server. The results show that the SST RMSE of the CGOFS system is about between 0.65~0.73℃ through the forecast leading day, which is the middle range within the seven international operational forecasting systems. The skill scores against persisted field and climatology are positive, which demonstrates the skill of CGOFS system out-performs its own persisted forecasts and climatology for the SST.

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