基于非迭代海-气通量算法蒸发波导预测模型在不同海域的适应性研究-海洋预报

基于非迭代海-气通量算法蒸发波导预测模型在不同海域的适应性研究

单位：1. 中国人民解放军63983部队, 江苏无锡 214000;
2. 国防科技大学气象海洋学院, 江苏南京 210000;
3. 中国气象科学研究院南京气象科技创新研究院, 江苏南京 210000;
4. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081;
5. 平潭综合实验区气象局, 福建

关键词：蒸发波导蒸发波导预测模型非迭代海-气通量算法适应性

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2020·37·第六期（52-64）

摘要：

利用非迭代海-气通量算法蒸发波导预测模型（Liu-Li模型）对我国渤海海域试验数据及大西洋海域FNL分析资料进行诊断，分析了模型对不同海域海上气象要素的敏感性，对试验时间内蒸发波导高度进行了预测，并与观测的实际波导高度进行了比较分析。此外，将Liu-Li模型与Babin模型、NPS模型、P-J模型和伪折射率模型的预测诊断效果进行对比。结果表明：Liu-Li模型的计算结果与实际观测波导高度及其他4种模型计算结果的变化趋势基本一致，能较好地反应该时段内海上蒸发波导高度的变化趋势，并对不同层结状态下的气象要素作出敏感性响应。在渤海海域，Liu-Li模型在不稳定海气层结状态下计算得到的波导高度略低于实际观测波导高度，而在稳定海气层结状态下Liu-Li模型计算得到的波导高度结果偏大，特别是海气层结状态越稳定时，LiuLi模型的计算会出现异常值。在西北大西洋海域，Liu-Li模型对蒸发波导高度的诊断与Babin模型、NPS模型和伪折射率模型相近，但Liu-Li模型计算稳定性更好；同时，大多数时次内Liu-Li模型的计算结果与风速和相对湿度的变化趋势较为接近，在海气条件复杂多变的情况下模型计算的波导高度容易产生变化波动。试验表明Liu-Li模型能在不同海域进行有效的蒸发波导诊断预报。研究初步探讨了Liu-Li模型在不同海域的适应性，为非迭代海-气通量算法蒸发波导预测模型的发展提出了可行性研究。

In order to further study the prediction and diagnosis ability of the evaporation duct prediction model (Liu-Li model) based on non-iterative air-sea flux algorithm, the Liu-Li model is used to diagnose the experimental data in the Bohai Sea and the FNL reanalysis data in the Atlantic Ocean and to analyze its sensitivity to the marine meteorological variables in different sea areas. The height of evaporation duct during the experimental period is predicted by the Liu-Li model and is compared with observations. In addition, the Liu-Li model is compared with the Babin model, NPS model, P-J model and pseudo-refractive index model in terms of their prediction and diagnosis effect. The results show that the calculation results of the Liu-Li model are basically consistent with the observed duct height and the variation trend of the other four models. It can better reflect the variation trend of the sea evaporation duct height during this time period., and sensitively responds to meteorological variables under different stratification states. In the Bohai Sea, the duct height calculated by the Liu-Li model in the unstable sea-atmosphere stratification state is slightly lower than observation, while the duct height calculated by the Liu-Li model in the stable sea-atmosphere stratification state is slightly larger. In particular, abnormal values tends to appear in the calculation of Liu-Li model when sea-atmosphere stratification state becomes stable enough. In the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, the Liu-Li model's diagnosis of the evaporation duct height is similar to the Babin model, NPS model, and pseudo-refractive index model, but the Liu-Li model has better calculation stability. In most of the time, the calculation results of Liu-Li model are close to the variation trend of wind speed and relative humidity. The height of the evaporation duct calculated by the Liu-Li model is prone to change and fluctuation under complex air-sea conditions. Experiments show that the Liu-Li model can be used to effectively diagnose and predict the evaporation duct in different sea areas. This study preliminarily discusses the adaptability of the Liu-Li model in different sea areas, which provides a feasibility study for the development of the evaporation duct prediction model based on non-iterative air-sea flux algorithm.

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