集合预报及其在季节尺度气候预测中的应用-海洋预报

集合预报及其在季节尺度气候预测中的应用

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 厦门大学海洋与地球学院, 福建厦门 361005;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P456.7;P732.5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2020·37·第六期（102-111）

摘要：

系统回顾了集合预报技术的发展，介绍了4种比较常用的集合构建方法，重点关注这些方法在季节尺度气候预测领域的研究进展及应用，特别是在ENSO集合预报领域。此外，还从季节尺度气候预测系统的发展、集合设计方案和ENSO集合预报效果等方面介绍了国内外3个应用比较广泛的季节尺度气候预测系统，可为集合预报技术和季节尺度气候预测系统的发展和应用提供参考。

This paper systematically reviews the progress of ensemble forecasting and four frequently used methods in generating ensembles with focus on their application in the seasonal climate prediction, especially in the area of ENSO ensemble prediction. Meanwhile, three seasonal climate forecasting systems widely used at home and abroad are introduced in terms of evolution, ensemble design and prediction skill for ENSO, which provides a reference for the development and application of ensemble forecasting techniques and of seasonal climate prediction systems.

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