基于ECMWF细网格风场的台风“烟花”与飓风“艾达”风暴潮数值预报检验与分析-海洋预报

基于ECMWF细网格风场的台风“烟花”与飓风“艾达”风暴潮数值预报检验与分析

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.34

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第三期（1-9）

摘要：

基于已调试验证的全球风暴潮数值预报模型,采用ECMWF细网格预报风场对2106号台风“烟花”和Al2109号飓风“艾达”开展风暴潮数值预报检验和分析。结果表明:台风“烟花”48 h和24 h台风预报路径、强度与实测相近,各潮位站48 h和24 h预报平均绝对误差分别为0.49 m和0.22 m,平均相对误差分别为30.17%和12.56%;飓风“艾达”48 h和24 h台风预报路径较实况偏西,预报强度低于实测,各潮位站48 h和24 h预报平均绝对误差分别为1.14 m和0.49 m,平均相对误差分别为61.29%和25.17%。分析风暴潮数值预报误差的原因发现:ECMWF细网格风场对风圈庞大且强度变化较慢的大型台风“烟花”的预报准确度高,而对短时间强度爆发型飓风“艾达”的预报准确度稍显不足,导致台风“烟花”风暴潮预报的误差明显小于飓风“艾达”。ECMWF细网格风场可以成为驱动风暴潮数值预报的有益补充,建立模型风场与ECMWF细网格风场的融合风场将会进一步提升风暴潮预报精度。

Based on the validated global storm surge numerical forecasting model, the ECMWF fine grid wind field is used to carry out storm surge numerical forecast verification and analysis for typhoon "In-Fa"(2106) and hurricane "Ida"(Al2109). The results show that the track and intensity of the 48 h and 24 h forecast of typhoon "In-Fa" are close to observations. Compared to the observations at each tide gauges, the average absolute errors of 48 h and 24 h forecast are 0.49 m and 0.22 m, and the average relative errors are 30.17% and 12.56%,respectively. For the 48 h and 24 h forecast of Hurricane Ida, the track shows a location bias to the west and the intensity is weaker compared to observations. Compared to the observations at each tide gauges, the average absolute errors of 48 h and 24 h forecast are 1.14 m and 0.49 m, and the average relative errors are 61.29% and25.17%, respectively. By analyzing the reasons for the storm surge numerical forecast errors, it is found that the ECMWF fine grid wind field has high accuracy in forecasting the large-scale typhoon "In-Fa" with huge wind circles and slow intensity changes. However, the forecast accuracy for hurricane "Ida" that occurs within a short period of time with strong intensity is slightly insufficient, which led to the forecast error of storm surge caused by "In-Fa" is significantly less than that caused by hurricane "Ida". The ECMWF fine grid wind field can be a useful supplement for the storm surge numerical forecast, and the hybrid wind field of the model wind field and the ECMWF fine grid wind field will further improve the accuracy of the storm surge forecast.

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