夏季黄海中北部孤立气旋对渤海风暴潮影响模拟研究-海洋预报

夏季黄海中北部孤立气旋对渤海风暴潮影响模拟研究

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第一期（1-9）

摘要：

应用经验风场模型刻画夏季黄海中北部孤立气旋的风场，利用数值模拟开展孤立气旋强度和移动路径对渤海内风暴潮的定量影响研究。结果表明：受黄海中北部孤立气旋的影响，渤海中3个海湾的最大风暴潮分别发生在各湾顶附近的葫芦岛站、黄骅站和潍坊站，渤海海峡内最大风暴潮对气旋路径的敏感性较小。渤海沿岸潜在最大风暴潮与黄海中北部孤立气旋强度存在幂指数相关关系S =Ṽ_m^2.391。初步分析得出造成渤海内海湾和海峡较大风暴潮的孤立气旋的移动关键区域分别为威海市东南附近海域、烟台市东部及威海市北部沿海海域、烟台市东部沿海海域、青岛市东部-威海市南部沿海海域。

In this paper, the empirical wind field model is applied to describe the solitary cyclones in the central and northern Yellow Sea in summer, and the numerical simulation is used to carry out a quantitative study on the impact of the solitary cyclones' intensity and tracks on the storm surge in the Bohai Sea. The results show that due to the solitary cyclones in the central and northern Yellow Sea, the largest storm surge in the three bays of the Bohai Sea occurs near Huludao, Huanghua and Weifang stations respectively, and the largest storm surge in the Bohai Strait is less sensitive to the cyclone tracks. A power exponential function is found to represent the potential maximum storm surge in the Bohai Sea due to the solitary cyclones in the central and northern Yellow Sea: S =Ṽ_m^2.391. It is preliminarily analyzed that the key areas of solitary cyclone tracks that cause large storm surges in the Bohai Sea are the waters near the southeast of Weihai City, the eastern coastal waters of Yantai City and the northern coastal waters of Weihai City, the eastern coastal waters of Yantai City, and the coastal waters from eastern part of Qingdao City to the southern part of Weihai City.

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