北太平洋表层海水pH值的重建-海洋预报

北太平洋表层海水pH值的重建

单位：1. 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院, 上海 201306;
2. 上海河口海洋测绘工程技术研究中心, 上海 201306

分类号：P734.2⁺5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第一期（46-56）

摘要：

以 1993-2018年北太平洋海表面温度（SST）、海表面盐度（SSS）、叶绿素a浓度（Chl-a）、二氧化碳分压（pCO₂）等数据为基础，利用传统线性回归分析和 BP 神经网络算法，建立表层海水pH值的预测模型。结果表明：两种方法对于重建北太平洋表层海水pH值都能达到较高的精度，其中线性回归模型基于SSS、Chl-a、pCO₂参数模拟最佳，BP神经网络模型基于SST、SSS、Chl-a、pCO₂参数模拟最佳。对比两种最佳模型的均方根误差和拟合系数发现，BP神经网络模型优于线性回归模型。除此之外，最佳BP神经网络模型在4个季节的拟合效果均很好，不同季节的适用性远高于最佳线性回归模型。表层海水 pH 值受到多种因素的综合影响，与 pCO₂、SST 呈负相关关系，与SSS、Chl-a呈正相关关系。应用最佳 BP神经网络模型重建北太平洋表层海水 pH 值发现，本研究模型的预测结果与已有研究、哥白尼欧洲地球观测计划数据、站点实测数据都存在很好的一致性，表层海水pH值冬季高于夏季，整体呈现西北高东南低的趋势。

Based on the data of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration and carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO₂) in the North Pacific from 1993 to 2018, a prediction model for the pH value of surface seawater in the North Pacific is established using the traditional linear regression and the BP neural network algorithm. The results show that the two methods have good consistency for the reconstruction of the pH value of the surface seawater in the North Pacific. The linear regression model is of the best performance based on the parameters of SSS, Chl-a, pCO₂, and the BP neural network model is of the best performance based on the parameters of SST, SSS, Chl-a and pCO₂. Comparing the root mean square error and fitting coefficient of the two best models, it is found that the BP neural network model is better than the linear regression model. In addition, the applicability of the best BP neural network model in spring, summer, autumn and winter is much higher than that of the best linear regression model. The pH value of surface seawater is affected by many factors, which shows a negative correlation with pCO₂ and SST and a positive correlation with SSS and Chl-a. Using the best BP neural network model to reconstruct the surface seawater pH value in the North Pacific, it is found that the prediction results of the model are in good agreement with the existing research, Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service data and the measured site data. The pH value of the surface seawater in winter is higher than that in summer with the overall trend being higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast.

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