浙江沿海台风浪模式的参数适应性研究-海洋预报

浙江沿海台风浪模式的参数适应性研究

单位：1. 浙江大学海洋学院港口海岸与近海工程研究所, 浙江舟山 316021;
2. 浙江省海洋监测预报中心, 浙江杭州 310000

分类号：P731.22

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第二期（22-31）

摘要：

基于第三代近岸海浪模型（Simulating Waves Nearshore，SWAN）和敏感性分析提出了适用于浙江沿海台风浪模拟的参数方案。选取近10 a影响浙江海域的37个台风进行数值模拟和误差分析，验证该参数方案下模型对不同强度和路径台风的适应性。结果表明，优选参数方案对各类型台风浪的模拟效果良好，平均相对误差小于31%，对强台风型台风浪的模拟效果明显优于超强台风和台风，平均相对误差小于25%；对西北向型台风浪的模拟效果最好，平均相对误差小于30%。

In this paper, a parameter scheme suitable suitable for typhoon wave simulation along Zhejiang coastal area is proposed based on the third-generation Simulating Wave Nearshore (SWAN) model and sensitivity analysis. The numerical simulation results and error analysis of 37 typhoons affecting the Zhejiang Province in the past 10 years are selected to verify the adaptability of the model to typhoons of different intensities and paths under this parameter scheme. The results show that the parameter scheme proposed in this paper is suitable for simulating various types of typhoon waves with the average relative error less than 31%. The simulation effect of strong typhoon waves is significantly better than that of super typhoons and typhoons with the average relative error less than 25%. The simulation effect of northwest-oriented typhoon waves is the best with the average relative error less than 30%.

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