边界层参数化方案对台风“烟花”北上阶段模拟影响的差异比较

作者：邢蕊1 2  杨健博1 3  庄庭4  王庆元5  邱晓滨1 3  田梦1 3

单位：1. 天津市海洋气象重点实验室, 天津 300074; 2. 天津市滨海新区气象局, 天津 300457; 3. 天津市气象科学研究所, 天津 300074; 4. 天津市气象探测中心, 天津 300061; 5. 天津市气象台, 天津 300074

关键词：边界层参数化方案 北上台风 数值模拟 环渤海区域

分类号：P456.7

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第四期（107-121）

摘要：

利用中尺度数值预报模式（WRF）中的8种边界层参数化方案（ACM2、Boulac、GBM、MYJ、MYNN、QNSE、UW、YSU），采用高分辨率数值试验的方法研究不同边界层参数化方案对台风“烟花”（2021）北上影响环渤海区域阶段的路径、强度、降水及动热力结构等方面的模拟差异。结果表明：台风北上后的路径模拟对边界层参数化方案较敏感，其中Boulac方案模拟的路径误差最小,随着积分时间延长，各试验的路径差异也越来越显著；由于台风北上阶段强度较弱，模拟的最低气压绝对误差总体偏小，基本分布在2～6 hPa之间；各试验对累积降水极值大小和位置的模拟存在较大差异，通过分析24 h累积降水的TS评分可知，Boulac方案在中雨以上量级的模拟中表现最优，而ACM2方案则在大雨及暴雨以上量级的模拟中表现最优；各试验对于台风动热力结构的模拟存在差异，其中动力结构的差异更加明显，并且低层大气比高层大气差异更显著。造成这种差异的原因可能是由于各方案对边界层热通量以及动热力结构的模拟存在差异，并通过边界层顶的夹卷过程将这种差异引入高层大气。

Eight planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes (ACM2, Boulac, GBM, MYJ, MYNN, QNSE, UW and YSU) in the mesoscale numerical model WRFv4.3 are used to simulate the track, intensity, precipitation, dynamical and thermodynamical structures in the boundary layer of Typhoon "In-Fa " (2021) during its northward-movement phase to the coastal regions of the Bohai Sea. The results show that the simulated track of the typhoon is sensitive to the PBL schemes. The simulated track using the Boulac scheme shows the smallest error. The differences between simulated tracks amplify along with the prolong of integral time. The absolute errors (between 2～6 hPa) of the simulated minimum pressure are small because of the weak intensity of the typhoon in the northward-movement period. The maximum value and position of the accumulated rainfall show significant differences in the eight PBL schemes tests. Based on the analysis of the 24 h accumulated rainfall threat scores, the Boulac scheme shows the optimal performance on the simulation of moderate rain and above, while the ACM2 is the best in simulating heavy and torrential rain. The eight PBL schemes show significant differences in the simulation of dynamical and thermodynamical structures, and the discrepancies in the dynamical structures are more obvious. The simulation differences are more significant on the atmosphere at the lower levels compared to the higher levels. The main reason for those differences may be due to the simulation discrepancies in the heat flux, dynamic and thermodynamic structures of the PBL in the eight simulations, which affect the higher atmosphere through the entrainment process at the top of the PBL.

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