Wavewatch Ⅲ模拟和统计方法在最大波高预报方面的评测分析-海洋预报

Wavewatch Ⅲ模拟和统计方法在最大波高预报方面的评测分析

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210098;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第一期（1-9）

摘要：

为了研究Wavewatch Ⅲ（WWⅢ）海浪模型对最大波高的模拟能力及其与传统统计关系方法的差异，通过对两次台风浪过程的后报模拟和半年的业务化预报，分析了WWⅢ数值模拟的准确度及其与统计关系方法的精度差异。研究结果表明： WWⅢ数值模拟的最大波高（H_max）的精度略低于有效波高（H_s），但也达到了24 h预报相对误差（H_max≥1 m）低于18%、相关系数高于0.94的水平，模拟精度可靠，可以用于业务化预报；与两种统计关系方法（H_max和H_s分别为1.42和1.52）计算的最大波高相比，数值模拟的精度总体与其相当，但在H_max和H_s比值大于1.65这种易出现危险的海况下，数值模拟具有更高的准确性，更适合应用于海浪预警报服务。

In order to assess the performance of Wavewatch Ⅲ(WWⅢ) model on maximum wave height simulation and its difference from the traditional statistical relationship methods, the accuracy of WWⅢ simulation and its deviation from the statistical relationship methods are analyzed through the hindcast simulation of two typhoon wave processes and the semi-annual operational forecasts. It is found that: The accuracy of maximum wave height of WW Ⅲ simulation is slightly lower than that of significant wave height, but still reaches the conditions of the relative error of 24-hour forecast (under the condition of maximum wave height not less than 1 meter) is lower than 18%, and the correlation coefficient is higher than 0.94. The accuracy of WWⅢ simulation is reliable and can be used in operational forecasts. Compared with the maximum wave height calculated by two statistical relationship methods (the ratios of H_max and H_s are 1.42 and 1.52), the accuracy of WWⅢ simulation is generally equivalent to them. However, when the ratio of H_max and H_s is greater than 1.65, which indicates dangerous sea conditions, the WWⅢ simulation has better accuracy and is more suitable for the early warning of sea waves.

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