常规海浪预报定量化检验评估方法研究-海洋预报

常规海浪预报定量化检验评估方法研究

单位：自然资源部东海预报减灾中心, 上海 201306

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第一期（10-20）

摘要：

常规海浪预报内容是一段文字，无法直接应用实况数据进行预报质量的检验评估。在详细调研全国海洋预报机构发布的海浪预报产品的基础上，应用东海预报减灾中心预报结果和实况数据进行反复测试与验证，制定了常规预报产品的处理规则，设计了检验评估方法；通过对存在问题的研讨与论证，重点解决评估波高最小值设定、观测点与预报海域面之间的关系、同一海域多点实况资料选取等定量化检验评估中的关键技术难点，提升了检验评估规则的合理性和适用性。

The content of conventional sea wave forecasts is a paragraph of text, and it is impossible to validate the forecasts using observational values. On the basis of broadly investigation of sea wave forecasting products released by national ocean prediction centers, this paper introduces a processing rule for the conventional sea wave forecasts and its verification and evaluation methods after applying test and validation repeatedly to the forecasting results against the observational values provided by the East China Sea Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Natural Resources. Through the discussion and demonstration of the existing problems, the key technical difficulties in the quantitative verification and evaluation have been settled, such as setting of the minimum sea wave height value, relationship between the observational location and the forecasting area, and selection of multi-point observational values in an area. The rationality and applicability of the verification and evaluation rules have been improved.

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