河北省海啸灾害风险评估和区划研究-海洋预报

河北省海啸灾害风险评估和区划研究

单位：1. 河北省水文工程地质勘查院, 河北石家庄 050021;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.25

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第一期（50-60）

摘要：

基于康奈尔多电网耦合海啸模型（COMCOT）数值模式建立研究区海啸数值模型，利用模型对6个地震海啸源情景场进行模拟计算，通过对各海啸源下数值模拟结果的综合分析，确定研究区海啸灾害危险性分布；根据土地利用类型数据资料确定研究区承灾体脆弱性分布；通过危险性、脆弱性评估成果，综合确定研究区海啸灾害风险性评估和区划成果。结果表明：河北省遭受海啸灾害风险最高等级为Ⅱ级，主要分布在唐山市和秦皇岛市沿海区域；沧州市沿海区域海啸灾害风险等级较小，为Ⅲ级和Ⅳ级。

A tsunami numerical model has been established based on the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model, and used in simulating six tsunamis. By analyzing the simulation results, hazard distribution of the tsunamis has been derived. The vulnerability distribution is determined according to the land use types. Utilizing the distributions of hazard and vulnerability, the risk assessment and zoning of tsunami disaster are generated. The results show that the highest level of tsunami disaster in Hebei Province is level Ⅱ. The coastal risk areas of level Ⅱ mainly locate in Tangshan and Qinhuangdao. The risk level of tsunami disaster in Cangzhou is relatively low with levels Ⅲ and Ⅳ.

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