1971—2020年南海生成热带气旋的活动规律与大风分布特征-海洋预报

1971—2020年南海生成热带气旋的活动规律与大风分布特征

单位：江苏航运职业技术学院航海技术学院, 江苏南通 226010

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第一期（104-111）

摘要：

利用东京台风中心提供的1971—2020年的西北太平洋热带气旋资料，对南海生成热带气旋的发生频数、发生源地、强度和持续时间、移动路径以及大风分布特征进行统计分析。结果表明：南海热带气旋主要生成于5—12月，其中6—9月为盛行期，约有70%的热带气旋生成；热带气旋生成位置季节变化明显，6—9月多生成于南海北部17°N附近，11月—次年4月多生成于14°N以南的南海南部，5月和10月为季节转换期，生成位置大幅北进或南撤；热带气旋中心最低气压为940～1 004 hPa，平均值为985.4 hPa，近中心最大风速为35～85 kt，平均值为48.3 kt，平均持续天数为6.2 d；热带气旋移动路径以西移和西北移路径居多，各月都有发生，其次为东北移路径，主要发生在5—6月；近90%的南海热带气旋10级以上大风以中心呈对称分布，大风圈平均半径为53.2 n mile，在7级以上大风中以中心呈对称分布的略多于不对称分布的，7级大风圈的平均半径为142.3 n mile。

Based on the data of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific from 1971 to 2020 provided by the Tokyo typhoon center, the occurrence frequency, origin location, intensity and duration, moving path and gale distribution characteristics of tropical cyclones generated in the South China Sea are statistically analyzed. The following main conclusions are obtained: tropical cyclones in the South China Sea mainly occur during May and December, in which June to September is the prevailing period, and the occurrence frequency in these four months accounts for about 70% of annual number. The seasonal variation of the cyclone origins is large. From June to September, cyclones originate near 17°N in the northern South China Sea on average. From November to April of the next year, cyclones originate in the southern South China Sea (south of 14°N). May and October are the seasonal transition periods, and the origin locations of cyclones shift northward or southward significantly; The minimum pressure of the cyclone center is 940～1 004 hPa with an average of 985.4 hPa, the maximum wind speed near the cyclone center is 35～85 kt with an average of 48.3 kt, and the average duration is 6.2 d; Most of the cyclones move westward and northwestward during June and December, followed by northeastward during May and June. Strong winds above force 10 associated with nearly 90% of the South China Sea tropical cyclones are symmetrically distributed with respect to the center, and the average radius of the strong wind circle is 53.2 n miles. The symmetrically distributed strong winds above force 7 are slight more than the asymmetrically distributed strong winds above force 7, and the average radius of the strong wind circle is 142.3 n miles.

参考文献：

[1] 梁梅, 钟校尧, 徐建军, 等. 1960—2017年南海热带气旋强度突变特征[J]. 广东海洋大学学报, 2020, 40(3): 83-91. LIANG M, ZHONG X Y, XU J J, et al. Sudden changes in tropical cyclone intensity in South China Sea from 1960 to 2017[J]. Journal of Guangdong Ocean University, 2020, 40(3): 83-91.
[2] 孔宁谦, 陈润珍, 蔡敏. 改进的持续法作盛夏南海热带气旋强度和路径预报方法[J]. 海洋预报, 2006, 23(2): 52-55. KONG N Q, CHEN R Z, CAI M. The advanced climatic persistence method of forecasting tropical-cyclone track and intensity in South China Sea during midsummer[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2006, 23(2): 52-55.
[3] 李宇, 孔宁谦, 陈润珍. 用模糊聚类分型方法作盛夏南海热带气旋路径预报[J]. 海洋预报, 2008, 25(3): 81-85. LI Y, KONG N Q, CHEN R Z. Difference of QBO structure between east Asia monsoon region and south Asia monsoon region [J]. Marine Forecasts, 2008, 25(3): 81-85.
[4] 李春晖, 刘春霞, 程正泉. 近50年南海热带气旋时空分布特征及其海洋影响因子[J]. 热带气象学报, 2007, 23(4): 341-347. LI C H, LIU C X, CHENG Z Q. The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies over the South China Sea and its affecting oceanic factors in the past 50yrs [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2007, 23(4): 341-347.
[5] 江文, 王东海, 张春燕, 等. 近70年不同路径的南海热带气旋的统计特征[J]. 热带气象学报, 2022, 38(3): 433-443. JIANG W, WANG D H, ZHANG C Y, et al. Statistical characteristics of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea with different tracks in the past 70 years[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2022, 38(3): 433-443.
[6] 秦南南, 钟玮, 赵嘉琦. 1949-2017年南海地区热带气旋统计特征研究[J]. 气象研究与应用, 2019, 40(3): 1-4. QIN N N, ZHONG W, ZHAO J Q. Statistical characteristics of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea from 1949 to 2017[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research and Application, 2019, 40(3):1-4.
[7] 廖菲, 李文婷, 张子然, 等. 1949-2017年南海海域热带气旋强度和路径快速变化统计特征[J]. 海洋学报, 2019, 41(9): 126-135. LIAO F, LI W T, ZHANG Z R, et al. Analysis of rapid changes of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea for 1949-2017[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2019, 41(9): 126-135.
[8] 曹力戈, 王喜冬, 李威, 等. 路经南海热带气旋迅速加强的年代际变化[J]. 海洋学报, 2021, 43(5): 50-62. CAO L G, WANG X D, LI W, et al. Multidecadal variability of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones passing through the South China Sea[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2021, 43(5): 50-62.
[9] 黄小燕, 管兆勇, 何洁琳, 等. 南海ITCZ异常变化及其对非移入性南海热带气旋(TC)活动的可能影响[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(1):1-14. HUANG X Y, GUAN Z Y, HE J L, et al. Variations of ITCZ in the South China Sea and their possible influences on the South China Sea-generated tropical cyclone (SCS-G TC) activities[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(1): 1-14.
[10] 胡皓, 端义宏. 南海热带气旋迅速加强环境场因子的影响分析[J]. 热带气象学报, 2016, 32(3): 299-310. HU H, DUAN Y H. Analysis of environmental variables of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the South China Sea[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2016, 32(3): 299-310.
[11] Japan Meteorological Agency. RSMC best track data (text) (1951-2023)[EB/OL]. [2022-03-20]. https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/trackarchives.html.
[12] 郝赛, 毛江玉. 西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动季节变化的差异及可能原因[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2015, 20(4): 380-392. HAO S, MAO J Y. Differences of the seasonal variations of tropical cyclone activities over the South China Sea and the western north Pacific and the possible causes[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(4): 380-392.
[13] 杨亚新. 西北太平洋热带气旋中大风和波浪分布特征[J]. 上海海事大学学报, 2015, 36(4): 74-78. YANG Y X. Distribution characteristics of wind and wave in tropical cyclone of western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Shanghai Maritime University, 2015, 36(4): 74-78.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】