冷空气东北大风在渤海西岸引发风暴潮的统计与模拟研究-海洋预报

冷空气东北大风在渤海西岸引发风暴潮的统计与模拟研究

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
3. 山东省海洋预报减灾中心, 山东青岛 266100

分类号：P731.34

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第三期（12-21）

摘要：

利用美国国家环境预报中心 CFSv2逐小时分析预报场产品挑选出 2018—2023年共 5个冬半年内的64次冷空气东北大风过程，并整理了相应的温带风暴潮极值；以“221003”温带风暴潮为基准，构造了渤海区域内最大风速分别为7～12级的温带天气风场，计算了各情形下渤海西岸典型潮位站的最大风暴增水，归纳了渤海湾和莱州湾代表站黄骅和潍坊站的最大风暴增水与最大风速的幂指数关系；以此定量关系为基准建立了黄骅站和潍坊站50%及80%累积频率下风暴增水与CFSv2区域最大风速的定量关系。

64 storm surge processes in the west coast of the Bohai Sea caused by cold-air-induced northeast strong wind in wintertime half-years of 2018—2023 are selected based on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Selected Hourly Time-Series Products of National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Taking the "221003" storm surge as a reference, different wind fields with maximum wind speed at 7~12 wind scales in the Bohai Sea region are restructured, and the maximum storm surge at typical stations in the west coast of the Bohai Sea is simulated. The power exponent relationship between the maximum storm surge and the maximum wind speed at Huanghua and Weifang stations is established. Using this relationship, the quantitative relationships at Huanghua and Weifang stations between maximum storm surge at 50% and 80% cumulative frequencies and maximum wind speed in the CFSv2 products are proposed.

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