浙江沿海基于浮标的有效波高分析和数值预报订正-海洋预报

浙江沿海基于浮标的有效波高分析和数值预报订正

单位：1. 宁波市生态环境气象中心, 浙江宁波 315012;
2. 浙江省气象台, 浙江杭州 310057;
3. 宁波市气象台, 浙江宁波 315012;
4. 宁波市北仑区气象局, 浙江宁波 315826

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第三期（44-53）

摘要：

基于 2010 年 10 月―2022 年 12 月浙江沿海 5 个浮标站观测资料和 2020—2022 年欧洲中期天气预报中心细网格模式海浪和海面10 m风预报资料，对浮标站的风、浪相关性进行分析，对有效波高预报进行评估和订正方法研究。0～240 h预报偏差和均方根误差表明：模式对远岸浮标的预报比实况稍偏大，对近岸浮标预报则略偏小，预报不稳定性随预报时效的延长而增大。远离海岸的浮标站24 h预报与实况的相关性高于近岸站，两者的相关系数分别约为0.94和0.85。有效波高预报存在一定系统偏差，且是预报误差的主要来源。近岸浮标有效波高预报值小于观测值，远岸浮标的预报值偏差则随着有效波高的增大由正转负，负偏差的绝对值逐渐增大。对于远岸浮标，仅针对有效波高进行预报和实况的一元一次回归就有很好的订正效果，但近岸浮标受地形影响大，海浪预报的误差更大，同时引入有效波高和 10 m 风速作为预报因子，进行二元一次回归的订正效果更好。订正方程应用到同类型的周边海区浮标站仍然有很好的订正效果，可推广到浙江沿海同类型海区。

Based on the observations of five buoys along the Zhejiang coast from October 2010 to December 2022, and sea wave and 10-meter wind forecasts of the European Medium-Range Weather Prediction Center fine grid model, the observed correlation between wind and wave is analyzed, the significant wave height (SWH) forecasting is verified and correction method is studied as well. Deviations and root mean square error (RMSE) of the 0~240 hour forecasts indicate that the SWH is slightly overestimated for the buoys away from the coastline, while a little bit underestimated for the near shore buoys. The forecasting instability increases along with the prolong of lead time. The correlated coefficients between the 24-hour forecasts and the observations of the buoys far away from the coastline are higher than those of the near shore buoys, with coefficients of 0.94 and 0.85, respectively. There exists systematic deviations for the SWH forecasting, which dominates the error sources for the buoys. The predicted SWHs of the near shore buoys are lower than observations, while the forecast biases of the buoys far away from the coastline change from positive to negative with the SWH increasing, and the greater the SWH, the more absolute biases received. It basically follows a linear regression between the predicted SWHs and observations for the buoys away from the coastline. While larger biases are recorded for the near shore buoys due to the influence of terrain, and a two-variable linear regression can get a better SWH correction result, with the predicted SWH and 10-meter speed as regression variables. The correction equations can achieve good results and can be applied to the locations similar to the buoys along the Zhejiang coast.

参考文献：

[1] 黄婉茹,张尧,黎舸,等.海洋灾害调查与风险评估[J].城市与减灾, 2021(2):14-19. HUANG W R, ZHANG Y, LI G, et al. Survey on marine disaster and its risk assessment[J]. City and Disaster Reduction, 2021(2):14-19.
[2] 陈汨梨,潘志刚,徐啸,等.中国近海冷空气浪的参数化判别标准研究[J].中国港湾建设, 2020, 40(12):1-4. CHEN M L, PAN Z G, XU X, et al. Parameterized criterion for cold air wave in China's coastal seas[J]. China Harbour Engineering, 2020, 40(12):1-4.
[3] 周阳,叶钦,施伟勇,等.浙江中部三门湾波浪特征统计分析[J].海洋学报, 2021, 43(3):13-23. ZHOU Y, YE Q, SHI W Y, et al. Statistical analysis on wave characteristics in the Sanmen Bay of Zhejiang middle coast[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2021, 43(3):13-23.
[4] 蒋璐璐,涂小萍,王毅,等. "米娜" (1918)台风浪特征及其与"利奇马"(1909)的差异[J].海洋预报, 2021, 38(4):53-60. JIANG L L, TU X P, WANG Y, et al. Characteristics of typhooninduced wave by Mitag (1918) and their differences with that induced by typhoon Lekima (1909)[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2021, 38(4):53-60.
[5] 陈剑桥,韩博,杨清华,等.浙江东部海域沉船海难海浪灾害性特征分析[J].海洋预报, 2023, 40(1):28-38. CHEN J Q, HAN B, YANG Q H, et al. Analysis of the disastrous characteristics of waves for shipwrecks in the eastern waters of Zhejiang province[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2023, 40(1):28-38.
[6] 刘凡,陆小敏,徐丹,等.海浪预报方法研究进展[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 49(5):387-393. LIU F, LU X M, XU D, et al. Research progress of ocean waves forecasting method[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences), 2021, 49(5):387-393.
[7] 梁小力,王毅.基于SWAN模式的全球有效波高数值预报结果之初步验证[J].海洋预报, 2015, 32(6):1-9. LIANG X L, WANG Y. A preliminary validation of global numerical significant wave height prediction result based on the SWAN model[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2015, 32(6):1-9.
[8] 徐丽丽,肖文军,石少华,等. WaveWatch III和SWAN模型嵌套技术在业务化海浪预报系统中的应用及检验[J].海洋通报, 2015, 34(3):283-294. XU L L, XIAO W J, SHI S H, et al. Application and validation of an operational wave forecast model system based on the nesting use of WaveWatch III and SWAN model[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2015, 34(3):283-294.
[9] 邓心怡,黎北梅,王晓春,等. 2019年8-10月长江口近岸海上风电场风浪预报[J].海洋预报, 2021, 38(4):45-52. DENG X Y, LI B M, WANG X C, et al. Wind and ocean wave forecasts for the offshore wind farms near the Changjiang River estuary from August to October 2019[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2021, 38(4):45-52.
[10] 张永垂,陈诗尧,王宁,等.全球业务化海洋预报系统进展[J].地球科学进展, 2022, 37(4):344-357. ZHANG Y C, CHEN S Y, WANG N, et al. Progress of global operational ocean forecasting systems[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2022, 37(4):344-357.
[11] 姚日升,涂小萍,丁烨毅,等.华东沿海ASCAT反演风速的检验和订正[J].应用气象学报, 2015, 26(6):735-742. YAO R S, TU X P, DING Y Y, et al. Verification and correction on ASCAT wind velocities within the offshore East China Sea[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2015, 26(6):735-742.
[12] 申华羽,方艳莹,涂小萍,等. ECMWF细网格10 m风预报在浙江沿海的评估与订正[J].气象, 2020, 46(11):1485-1494. SHEN H Y, FANG Y Y, TU X P, et al. Verification of ECMWF 10 m wind forecast for coastal Zhejiang province[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2020, 46(11):1485-1494.
[13] 胡海川,黄彬,魏晓琳.我国近海洋面10 m风速集合预报客观订正方法[J].气象, 2017, 43(7):856-862. HU H C, HUANG B, WEI X L. Objective correction method of ensemble forecast of 10 m winds on Chinese offshore[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2017, 43(7):856-862.
[14] 胡海川,刘珺,林建.基于预报方程的我国近海阵风预报[J].气象, 2022, 48(3):334-344. HU H C, LIU J, LIN J. Application of prediction equation to gust forecasting for Chinese offshore areas[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2022, 48(3):334-344.
[15] 毛科峰,萧中乐,王亮,等.数值模式与统计模型相耦合的近岸海浪预报方法[J].海洋学报, 2014, 36(9):18-29. MAO K F, XIAO Z L, WANG L, et al. Coastal wave forecasting by dynamical model coupled with a statistical method[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2014, 36(9):18-29.
[16] 张蔺廉,陈淑琴,陈梅汀.基于舟山多年风浪资料的近海海浪预报研究[J].海岸工程, 2018, 37(3):25-33. ZHANG L L, CHEN S Q, CHEN M T. Research on offshore wave prediction based on wind and wave data obtained in Zhoushan in the past years[J]. Coastal Engineering, 2018, 37(3):25-33.
[17] 龚䶮,曹宗元,刘菡,等.一种利用浮标站资料改进海浪模式有效波高预报的方法[J].海洋预报, 2020, 37(1):50-54. GONG Y, CAO Z Y, LIU H, et al. A method for improving significant wave height prediction of wave mode using buoy station data[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2020, 37(1):50-54.
[18] 李江夏,朱钰,徐杰,等. ERA-Interim和ERA5再分析风资料在中国近海的适用性对比研究[J].海洋通报, 2023, 42(3):260-271. LI J X, ZHU Y, XU J, et al. A comparative study on the applicability of ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis wind data in the coastal waters of China[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2023, 42(3):260-271.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】