1949—2019年中心经过渤海的北上台风统计分析-海洋预报

1949—2019年中心经过渤海的北上台风统计分析

单位：1. 天津海洋中心气象台, 天津 300074;
2. 天津市海洋气象重点实验室, 天津 300074;
3. 天津市气象信息中心, 天津 300074

分类号：P442⁺.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第三期（90-97）

摘要：

利用中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集、自动站资料和常规观测资料，统计 1949—2019年中心经过渤海海域的北上台风，共计 25次过程。台风强度统计结果表明 44% 的台风过程为热带低压，16%为热带风暴，28%为强热带风暴，12%为台风残涡。台风中心进入渤海后，48%的台风强度减弱，28%的强度不变，24%的强度增强。中心经过渤海的台风96%出现在7—8月，其中7月中下旬—8月上旬占总数的64%，8月上旬的台风数目最多，占总数的29%。北上台风中心最大风速在10～30 m/s，台风入海后平均风速减弱2 m/s。台风中心最小气压为970 hPa，中心最大气压为1 004 hPa，平均气压为 992 hPa。西北路径台风中 88% 进入渤海后强度减弱，偏北路径台风中87.5%进入渤海后强度不变，东北路径台风中83.3%进入渤海后强度增强。

Based on the best path data set of tropical cyclones of the China Meteorological Administration, automatic weather station data and conventional observation data, statistical analysis on 25 northward-movement typhoons passing the Bohai Sea from 1949 to 2019 are conducted, with the proportions categorized as tropical depression, tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and typhoon remnant being 44%, 16%, 28%, and 12%, respectively. 48%, 28%, and 24% of the typhoons weakened, remained unchanged, and strengthened after moving into the Bohai Sea, respectively. 96% of the typhoons passing through the Bohai Sea occurred in July—August, of which 64% were from mid July to early August, and the number of typhoons in early August was the largest, accounting for 29% of the total. The maximum wind speed of the northward-movement typhoons was 10~30 m/s, and the average wind speed decreased by 2 m/s after moving into the sea. The minimum central pressure of the typhoons was 970 hPa, the maximum central pressure was 1 004 hPa, and the average central pressure was 992 hPa. 88% of the northwestward-movement typhoons weakened after moving into the Bohai Sea, 87.5% of the northward-movement typhoons remained unchanged after moving into the Bohai Sea, and 83.3% of the northeastward-movement typhoons strengthened after moving into the Bohai Sea.

参考文献：

[1] 周群,黄焕卿,张润宇,等. 2019年11月西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数异常偏多的成因分析[J].海洋预报, 2021, 38(1):18-25. ZHOU Q, HUANG H Q, ZHANG R Y, et al. Study of the causation of anomaly higher tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific in November 2019[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2021, 38(1):18-25.
[2] 陈联寿,孟智勇.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学, 2001, 25(3):420-432. CHEN L S, MENG Z Y. An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 25(3):420-432.
[3] 王艳玲,黄磊. 2009-2018年西北太平洋台风特征统计分析[J].广州航海学院学报, 2021, 29(2):28-32. WANG Y L, HUANG L. Statistics and analysis of typhoon in the Northwest Pacific from 2009 to 2018[J]. Journal of Guangzhou Maritime University, 2021, 29(2):28-32.
[4] 曾瑾瑜,林金凎,余洋,等. 2109号台风"卢碧"路径和强度特征及预报偏差分析[J].海洋预报, 2022, 39(3):10-24. ZENG J Y, LIN J G, YU Y, et al. An analysis on the track and intensity characteristics and forecast deviation of typhoon 2109"Lupit" [J]. Marine Forecasts, 2022, 39(3):10-24.
[5] 吴幸毓,高珊,韩美,等.影响福建的早台风统计特征[J].应用海洋学学报, 2020, 39(4):453-459. WU X Y, GAO S, HAN M, et al. Statistical characteristics of early typhoons affecting Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Applied Oceanography, 2020, 39(4):453-459.
[6] 吴迪生,赵雪,冯伟忠,等.南海灾害性土台风统计分析[J].热带气象学报, 2005, 21(3):309-314. WU D S, ZHAO X, FENG W Z, et al. The statistical analyse to the local harmful typhoon of South China Sea[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2005, 21(3):309-314.
[7] 刘巧辉,郑有飞,宋雅杰.近60年登陆和影响福建福鼎地区台风的统计分析[J].自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(1):129-133. LIU Q H, ZHENG Y F, SONG Y J. Statistical analysis of typhoon landing and impacting Fuding area of Fujian Province during 1948-2007[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2011, 20(1):129-133.
[8] 刘天绍,刘孙俊,杨玺,等. 1951-2015影响广东沿海台风的统计分析[J].海洋预报, 2018, 35(4):68-74. LIU T S, LIU S J, YANG X, et al. Statistical analysis of the typhoon influencing Guangdong province during 1951-2015[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2018, 35(4):68-74.
[9] 徐明,余锦华,赖安伟,等.环境风垂直切变与登陆台风强度变化关系的统计分析[J].暴雨灾害, 2009, 28(4):339-344. XU M, YU J H, LAI A W, et al. A statistical analysis on the relations between effect of wind vertical shear and landing typhoons intensity[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2009, 28(4):339-344.
[10] 郑峰,曾智华,雷小途,等.中国近海突然增强台风统计分析[J].高原气象, 2016, 35(1):198-210. ZHENG F, ZENG Z H, LEI X T, et al. A statistical study of rapid intensification of typhoons over coastal water of China[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2016, 35(1):198-210.
[11] 谢骏,朱先德,高大鲁,等.我国东部海域不同类型的登陆再发展变性台风的统计分析[J].海洋与湖沼, 2018, 49(2):251-262. XIE J, ZHU X D, GAO D L, et al. Statistical analysis of different types of typhoon landed on China's eastern coast with reintensification and extratropical transition[J]. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2018, 49(2):251-262.
[12] 杨诗琪,李英,陈联寿.西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的若干特征[J].热带气象学报, 2017, 33(5):666-674. YANG S Q, LI Y, CHEN L S. The characteristics of tropical cyclone intensity change in Western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2017, 33(5):666-674.
[13] 文永仁,戴高菊,龚月婷,等.我国台风路径突变研究进展[J].气象科技, 2017, 45(6):1027-1035. WEN Y R, DAI G J, GONG Y T, et al. Advances in research on sudden track change of typhoons in China[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2017, 45(6):1027-1035.
[14] 张玲,许映龙,黄奕武. 1330号台风海燕强烈发展和快速移动原因分析[J].气象, 2014, 40(12):1464-1480. ZHANG L, XU Y L, HUANG Y W. Analysis of the intense development and fast-moving of No. 1330 typhoon Haiyan[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2014, 40(12):1464-1480.
[15] 孙密娜,杨洋,姜皓严.影响黄渤海区域两次北上台风的对比分析[J].海洋预报, 2018, 35(5):74-84. SUN M N, YANG Y, JIANG H Y. Comparative analysis of two northward typhoons affecting the Bohai and Yellow Sea areas[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2018, 35(5):74-84.
[16] 朱男男,王彦,苏杭,等.台风"摩羯"(1814)残涡经渤海突然增强成因分析[J].海洋通报, 2020, 39(4):464-474. ZHU N N, WANG Y, SU H, et al. Analysis of the intense development on residual vortex of typhoon Yagi (1814)[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2020, 39(4):464-474.
[17] 朱男男,左涛,苏杭.台风"摩羯"和"利奇马"经渤海强度变化特征分析[J].气象科技, 2022, 50(2):214-223. ZHU N N, ZUO T, SU H. Characteristic analysis of intensity variation of typhoon Yagi and Lekima above Bohai Sea[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2022, 50(2):214-223.
[18] 杨晓亮,杨敏,隆璘雪,等.影响环渤海地区的北上台风特征及其各类典型大暴雨过程分析[J].海洋预报, 2021, 38(4):99-106. YANG X L, YANG M, LONG L X, et al. The characteristics of northward-moving typhoons affecting the Bohai rim region and the analysis of various types of related heavy rainfall processes[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2021, 38(4):99-106.
[19] 温连杰,刘桂艳,刘清容,等. 1960-2013年影响渤海的热带气旋特征分析[J].海洋开发与管理, 2016, 33(8):84-89. WEN L J, LIU G Y, LIU Q R, et al. Statistical analysis of tropical cyclones which affected the Bohai Sea during 1960-2013[J]. Ocean Development and Management, 2016, 33(8):84-89.
[20] 梁军,陈联寿,李英,等.北上变性热带气旋对辽东半岛降水的影响[J].热带气象学报, 2008, 24(5):449-458. LIANG J, CHEN L S, LI Y, et al. Impacts of tropical cyclone extratropical transition on the rainfall over Liaodong Peninsula[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2008, 24(5):449-458.
[21] 张敏,米婕,戴志军,等.海平面上升对北部湾风暴潮增水影响研究--以2012年台风"山神"为例[J].海洋通报, 2021, 40(3):309-318. ZHANG M, MI J, DAI Z J, et al. Impacts of sea-level rise on storm surge in the Beibu Gulf:a case study on typhoon Son-Tinh in 2012[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2021, 40(3):309-318.
[22] 彭跃华,易大江,王挺,等.西北太平洋台风路径的聚类分析[J].海洋预报, 2019, 36(5):63-70. PENG Y H, YI D J, WANG T, et al. Clustering analysis of typhoon track in the North-West Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2019, 36(5):63-70.
[23] 金荣花,高拴柱,顾华,等.近31年登陆北上台风特征及其成因分析[J].气象, 2006, 32(7):33-39. JIN R H, GAO S Z, GU H, et al. An analysis on characteristics of landing and going northward typhoons and its causes during 1975-2005[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2006, 32(7):33-39.
[24] 郭丽霞,陈联寿,李英.登陆热带气旋入黄渤海强度变化的环境场特征[J].应用气象学报, 2010, 21(5):570-579. GUO L X, CHEN L S, LI Y. Characteristics of environment flow related to intensity change of landing tropical cyclones towards the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2010, 21(5):570-579.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】