椒江沿海大风特征分析及精细化预报方法研究-海洋预报

椒江沿海大风特征分析及精细化预报方法研究

单位：1. 台州市椒江区气象局, 浙江台州 318000;
2. 台州市黄岩区气象局, 浙江台州 318020

分类号：P457.5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第三期（98-109）

摘要：

利用大陈气象站、椒江口和一江山自动站的观测资料及美国国家环境预报中心分辨率为1°×1°的逐6 h再分析数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心的EC细网格（分辨率为0.25°×0.25°）模式资料，分析了椒江沿海大风月际、年际变化特征及影响因子，构建预报模态，提炼沿海大风预报思路，并对EC细网格模式大风预报进行检验。结果表明：冬季冷空气大风为椒江沿海大风的主要类型；气压梯度和高空环流形势是冷空气大风的两大影响因素；当椒江沿海存在负变压中心，极有可能在未来 24～36 h出现变压大风；气旋北大风可划分为北槽南涡型和低涡切变型，气旋南大风可划分为东亚大槽型和沿海高压型；针对冷空气偏北大风和气旋偏北大风，EC细网格模式具有一定的可参考性，与实况极大风速相比，绝大多数情况下的预报风速偏小。

This paper analyzes the monthly and annual variation characteristics of gales in the Jiaojiang coastal area, studies its influencing factors and forecasting modes, and tests the EC fine-grid model gales forecasting product, based on the observational data from Dachen meteorological station, Jiaojiangkou and Yijiangshan automatic weather stations, the 6-hour reanalysis data at 1°×1° resolution from National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the EC fine-grid model data at 0.25°×0.25° resolution from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The results show that cold air gales in winter is the majority of gales in the Jiaojiang coastal area. The pressure gradient and atmospheric circulation situation are two main influencing factors of cold air gales. A negative barotropic center over the Jiaojiang coastal area very likely leads to barotropic gale in the following 24～36 hours. Gales at the north side of cyclones can be divided into north trough south vortex type and low vortex shear type, while gales at the south side of cyclones can be divided into East Asia great trough type and coastal high type. The EC fine-grid model product has a certain degree of reference value on forecasting the northerly gales of cold air and cyclones. Compared to the observed maximum wind speed, the predicted wind speed is smaller in most cases.

参考文献：

[1] 张霞,吴彩霞,缪燕,等.长江口沿海地区灾害性大风的时空分布特征[J].广州航海学院学报, 2014, 22(4):8-10. ZHANG X, WU C X, MIAO Y, et al. Time and space distribution of the severe winds in the Yangtze estuary coastal areas[J]. Journal of Guangzhou Maritime Institute, 2014, 22(4):8-10.
[2] 侯伟芬.浙江沿海大风形势及其对渔船安全的影响[J].浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版), 2004, 23(2):130-133. HOU W F. The wind situation its influence on navigation safety of fishing boats off Zhejiang[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University (Natural Science), 2004, 23(2):130-133.
[3] 李云法,唐伟民,杨万裕,等.浙江中部沿海大风特征及预报着眼点[C]//第27届中国气象学会年会气候资源应用研究分会场论文集.北京:中国气象学会, 2010:358-362. LI Y F, TANG W M, YANG W Y, et al. Characteristics and forecast focus of coastal gale in central Zhejiang province[C]//The 27th Annual Meeting of the Chinese Meteorological Society. Beijing:Chinese Meteorological Society, 2010:358-362.
[4] 隋玉秀,杨景泰,常慧琳,等.大连地区ECMWF细网格风向与实况的对比检验[J].海洋预报, 2022, 39(1):21-31. SUI Y X, YANG J T, CHANG H L, et al. Comparison and validation of ECMWF fine-grid wind direction and observation data in Dalian area[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2022, 39(1):21-31.
[5] 孙逸涵,何晓凤,周荣卫.不同背景场近地层风速的预报效果检验[J].资源科学, 2013, 35(12):2481-2490. SUN Y H, HE X F, ZHOU R W. Evaluation of forecasting results of wind speed based on different background fields in the surface layer[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(12):2481-2490.
[6] 曾瑾瑜,韩美,吴幸毓,等. WRF、EC和T639模式在福建沿海冬半年大风预报中的检验与应用[J].海洋科学, 2015, 39(7):75-85. ZENG J Y, HAN M, WU X Y, et al. Test and application of WRF, EC and T639 Models in strong wind forecasting in Fujian Coast in winter half year[J]. Marine Sciences, 2015, 39(7):75-85.
[7] 朱智慧,郑运霞,过霁冰.上海沿海站点极大风速预报方程的细化和完善[J].海洋预报, 2022, 39(1):32-38. ZHU Z H, ZHENG Y X, GUO J B. Refinement and improvement of the maximum wind speed prediction equation for Shanghai coastal stations[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2022, 39(1):32-38.
[8] 王镇铭,杜惠良,杨诗芳.浙江省天气预报手册[M].北京:气象出版社, 2013. WANG Z M, DU H L, YANG S F. Zhejiang province weather forecast manual[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2013.
[9] 朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M]. 4版.北京:气象出版社, 2007. ZHU Q G, LIN J R, SHOU S W, et al. Principles and methods of weather ology[M]. 4th ed. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.
[10] 陈瑞闪.福建沿海大风预报中的几个特殊问题[J].台湾海峡, 1983, 2(1):9-19. CHEN R S. Several special questions about gale forecasting on Fujian coast[J]. Taiwan Strait, 1983, 2(1):9-19.
[11] 卢敬华,雷小途.西南低涡移动的初步分析[J].成都气象学院学报, 1996, 11(1-2):40-49. LU J H, LEI X T. Preliminary analysis of movement of Southwest vortex[J]. Journal of Chengdu Institute of Meteoro-logy, 1996, 11(1-2):40-49.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】