基于谱逼近探究台风初始场误差对路径误差的影响-海洋预报

基于谱逼近探究台风初始场误差对路径误差的影响

单位：1. 自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室, 广东广州 510300;
2. 广东省海洋资源与近岸工程重点实验室, 中山大学海洋科学学院, 广东广州 510275;
3. 自然资源部南海发展研究院, 广东广州 510300

分类号：P457.8

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第一期（71-80）

摘要：

针对多层嵌套中尺度天气研究与预报模式（WRF），以1713号台风“天鸽”为例，研究不同的热启动方式对台风模拟精度的影响，并以1614号台风“莫兰蒂”、1822号台风“山竹”和2309号台风“苏拉”为例进行模拟验证。结果表明：使用谱逼近能够减少大尺度环境场误差，改善台风周围环境场，减小多层嵌套WRF模式的初始场误差；此技术能避免由于垂直风切变的增强和累积降雨量的增大，减弱了非对称对流活动的强度；如果不使用该技术，加热项将削弱水平平流项对台风的引导作用，导致24～72 h台风路径模拟误差增加。结果揭示：采用谱逼近技术可有效缩小大尺度环境场的误差，优化台风周边环境场，并降低多层嵌套WRF模式初始场的误差，防止垂直风切变过度增强和累积降雨量异常增加，从而减轻非对称对流活动的强度，避免加热项削弱水平平流项对台风的导向作用，提高台风路径模拟准确性。

Based on multi-layer nested Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF), the effects of different hot initializing methods on the simulation accuracy of No.1713 Typhoon "Hato" were studied, and No.1614 Typhoon "Meranti", No.1822 Typhoon "Mangkhut" and No.2309 Typhoon "Saola" are chosen as verification cases. The results showed that spectral nudging method could reduce the errors of large scale environment and initial field of the WRF model, and improve the environment field of the typhoon, which can avoid the elevation of vertical wind shear and cumulative rainfall, and weaken the intensity of the asymmetric convective activity of the typhoon. Otherwise, the diabatic heating would weaken the guidance of the horizontal advection to the typhoons, leading to an increase in the simulation error of typhoon paths within 24~72 hours.

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