中国近海海域多模式海面风速预报评估-海洋预报

中国近海海域多模式海面风速预报评估

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 中山大学人工智能学院, 广东珠海 5190822;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081;
4. 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海), 广东珠海, 5190822

关键词：数值模式海面风风速预报浮标评估

分类号：P457.5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第一期（81-88）

摘要：

由于海上观测资料的匮乏，中国近海海域风场预报研究相对不足。研究评估了南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海）自主改进的天气研究和预报模式（WRF）在2023年1—7月对中国近海海域海面风速的预报性能。选取欧洲中期天气预报中心的集成预报系统模式（IFS）和美国国家环境预报中心的全球预报系统模式（GFS）作为对比，预报时效包括24 h、48 h、72 h、96 h和120 h，采用中国近海浮标观测实况数据作为对比基准。研究结果表明：WRF模式的预报精度在多个预报时效下均优于GFS，在部分预报时效内优于IFS模式；对于高风速区间，WRF模式在24 h和48 h的预报表现尤为突出。

Due to the scarcity of ocean observational data, researches on wind field forecasting assessment in these areas remains relatively rare. This study assesses the performance of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model implemented at the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) on forecasting sea surface wind speeds at lead times of 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours, in China's nearshore areas from January to July 2023, against the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and real-time buoy data. The results show that the WRF model has higher accuracy than the GFS and IFS models in several forecast periods. In high wind speed range, the WRF model is particularly well at 24 and 48 hours.

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