WRF动力降尺度方法在广东近海风资源评估中的适用性分析-海洋预报

WRF动力降尺度方法在广东近海风资源评估中的适用性分析

作者：杜梦蛟¹ 2 王臻臻³ 张磊² 文仁强¹ 李华⁴ 5 夏静雯³ 辛欣³ 易侃¹ 贾天下¹

单位：1. 中国长江三峡集团有限公司科学技术研究院, 北京 100038;
2. 中国长江三峡集团有限公司广东分公司, 广东广州 510030;
3. 宁波市鄞州区气象局, 浙江宁波 315194;
4. 南京信息工程大学水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中

关键词：风能资源适用性评估海上风电 WRF模式

分类号：P457.5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第一期（89-97）

摘要：

利用WRF模式对ERA5再分析数据进行动力降尺度，获得近海高分辨率的WRF数据，并利用3座测风塔观测数据对WRF高分辨率数据和ERA5再分析数据进行适用性分析。结果表明：WRF模式的风速与观测更为接近，ERA5易低估各层风速；WRF和ERA5对广东近海主导风向的再现能力基本一致，且均能反映主导风向；WRF和ERA5风速的时间序列与观测的相关性都很高，均通过99%显著性检验；相较于ERA5，WRF拟合得到的威布尔参数与观测更为接近。因此相较于ERA5，WRF模拟数据更适用于对广东风能资源的评估。利用WRF模拟得到的广东近海风资源空间分布结果表明，广东近海风能密度大（>200 W/m²），有效风速的出现频率高（>0.88），且具有单一或两个主导风向，以上特征有利于广东近海的风能资源开发。

This study employs the WRF model (Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF) to dynamically downscale ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) reanalysis data, yielding high-resolution WRF data. The applicability of the WRF high-resolution data and ERA5 reanalysis data is assessed using observation data of 3 wind towers. Results show that wind speeds derived from the WRF exhibit closer agreement with observations, whereas ERA5 tends to underestimate wind speeds. Both WRF and ERA5 demonstrate comparable capabilities in reproducing the dominant wind directions in offshore Guangdong, reflecting these directions as well. The correlation coefficient between WRF (ERA5) and the observations exceeds the 99% confidence level. Compared with ERA5, the performance of Weibull fitting using WRF data is closer to the observations. Consequently, WRF data are more suitable than ERA5 for assessing wind energy resources in offshore Guangdong. The spatial distribution of wind resources, as derived from WRF data, reveals substantial wind power densities (>200 W/m²), a high frequency of effective wind speeds (>0.88). These factors, combined with the presence of one or two dominant wind directions, collectively indicate favorable conditions for wind energy development in offshore Guangdong.

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