CMA-TYM对台风“杜苏芮”预报的综合评估与误差分析-海洋预报

CMA-TYM对台风“杜苏芮”预报的综合评估与误差分析

单位：1. 成都信息工程大学, 四川成都 610225;
2. 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心, 北京 100081;
3. 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081

分类号：P457.8

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第六期（13-22）

摘要：

2023年第5号台风“杜苏芮”给我国东部—北部地区造成了大范围洪涝灾害和损失，本文综合评估了中国气象局区域台风预报系统对该台风的预报性能和误差状况。结果表明：台风路径预报前期主要为偏东的移向偏差，中后期主要为偏快的移速偏差；在台风生成阶段预报倾向于高估其强度，但较长的预报时效对快速增强过程中的台风强度增速预报较慢，导致台风强度峰值预报明显偏弱；提前24 h以内的预报登陆时间、强度和位置误差较小，提前48 h仍能较好地预报出登陆位置；副热带高压、西风槽以及对同期另一个台风“卡努”的预报存在偏差，是产生较大路径预报偏差的原因；系统能够预报出台风过程降水形态，但主要降水落区的降水量预报偏少，随着预报时效增加，模式刻画的海上以及登陆后的降水中心向东北偏移。

Typhoon "Doksuri", the fifth typhoon in 2023, caused widespread flooding and damages in the easternnorthern regions of China, and this paper comprehensively evaluates the forecast performance and error status of this typhoon by utilizing the China Meteorological Administration_Regional Mesoscale Typhoon Numerical Prediction System (CMA-TYM). The results are as follows. The early stage of the typhoon track forecast is dominated by an easterly shift deviation; the middle and late stage of the forecast is dominated by a fast shift deviation. Forecasts tend to overestimate the typhoon intensity during its generation stage, however, at longer forecast horizons, the growth rate of the typhoon intensity during rapid intensification is predicted to be slower, resulting in significantly weaker forecasts of peak typhoon intensity. Errors in forecasting landfall time, intensity and location are small for forecasts up to 24 h in advance, and landfall location is still better for forecasts at 48 h in advance. Deviations in the forecasts of the subtropical high, the westerly trough, and another Typhoon "Khanun" during the same period are the reasons for the large deviations in the track forecasts. It is able to forecast the precipitation pattern of the typhoon process, but the forecast of precipitation in the main precipitation fallout area is less. As the forecast horizons increases, the precipitation center at sea as well as after landfall is shifted to the northeast.

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