基于最优插值法的渤海CLDAS海面风客观订正-海洋预报

基于最优插值法的渤海CLDAS海面风客观订正

单位：1. 天津市海洋气象重点实验室, 天津 300074;
2. 天津海洋中心气象台, 天津 300074

分类号：P732.1

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第四期（37-47）

摘要：

利用环渤海沿岸及海上125个站点的观测数据，采用最优插值法对中国气象局陆面数据同化系统（CLDAS）10 m风实况分析数据进行融合订正。结果表明：订正后的CLDAS数据与观测数据的相关系数由0.89增大到0.99，平均绝对误差由1.02 m/s减小到0.27 m/s，均方根误差由1.63 m/s减小到0.36 m/s。在渤海湾、莱州湾、辽东湾、渤海中部、渤海海峡不同海区中，莱州湾的订正效果最好，平均绝对误差和均方根误差都减小了81.4%左右。不同风力等级的订正效果显示，3级以下风的平均绝对误差由0.5～1.0 m/s减小到0.3 m/s以下，4～8级风的平均绝对误差由1.4～4.7 m/s减小到1.0 m/s以下，9级及以上风的平均绝对误差由5.9 m/s减小到1.1 m/s，且不同等级风的预报准确率也得到明显提升。对2021年1月和12月两次大风过程进行检验，发现订正后的CLDAS数据的10 m风速明显增大，变化趋势和风速大值区与观测数据更加接近。

Using the observation data from 125 stations along the coast and offshore in the Bohai Sea, the optimal interpolation method is used to correct the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System（CLDAS） 10-meter wind data. The results show that through correction, the correlation coefficient between the observation data and CLDAS data increases from 0.89 to 0.99, the mean absolute error decreases from 1.02 m/s to 0.27 m/s, and the root mean square error decreases from 1.63 m/s to 0.36 m/s. Among the different areas of the Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, Liaodong Bay, central Bohai Sea, and Bohai Strait, the best correction effect is achieved in the Laizhou Bay, with the mean absolute error and root mean square error reduced both by about 81.4%. The correction effect of different wind levels shows that the mean absolute error of winds below level 3 decreases from 0.5～1.0 m/s to below 0.3 m/s, that between levels 4 and 8 decreases from 1.4～4.7 m/s to below 1.0 m/s, and that above level 9 decreases from 5.9 m/s to 1.1 m/s. The validation of two strong wind processes in 2021 shows sthat the corrected CLDAS 10-meter wind speed increases significantly, the trend and wind speed maximum area are more closely aligned with the observed data.

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